After Argentina and Turkey, could Brazil be the next emerging market (EM) that goes into crisis? These events are not linked – each of these countries currently has idiosyncratic weaknesses. In the case of Brazil, the fiscal deficit is in the spotlight, coupled with the presidential elections in October.
Some investors propose hedging all currency exposure while others see no benefit to hedging at all, so is currency exposure a risk?
Correlations show us how assets have moved relative to each other in the past. As multi-asset investors, one of our key objectives is to identify assets that improve diversification. To do this, we try to combine assets with low or even negative correlations. This sounds easy, but can be surprisingly difficult in reality.
On some indicators equities look expensive – the CAPE ratio is the highest since the dot.com boom. But with interest rates at multi-decade lows, shouldn't equity earnings yields be low too? Rising interest rates pose a threat to valuations, but models suggest this could be offset as long as recession fears remain low.
‘Less is more!’ That is what correlation wants to brag about to enhance diversification. However, following the financial crisis, many believe that correlations are at an all-time high – is this the end of low correlations? We think not.
With 2017 now upon us, it’s clear that a new political paradigm has emerged. The prominence of Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Corbyn, Alternative for Deutschland and many others is not the result of idiosyncratic national political issues; it reflects a systemic political shift. Given this shift, is it possible for investors to find inner peace?