Video

Portfolio Thinking

US inflation – vlogging a dead horse?

With US inflation picking up much more slowly than expected in recent years, markets seem to be ignoring the cyclical risks. We think that's a mistake and one that could come back to bite investors. Here's a chance to find out why and what we're doing about it...

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Economics

Unreactive function

Here’s my take on the latest UK GDP numbers, the economic outlook and what that means for the Bank of England’s reaction function on CNBC.

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Strategy

Turkey under the grill

The temperature's roasting and the Turkish economy is under the spotlight. With President Erdoğan fighting financial markets, the contagion is spreading fast. So which parts are overdone and are there any tempting morsels worth trying? Here are our latest thoughts from Bloomberg TV. 

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Macrobites

Summer throwback

Just over a month ago we completed our Capital Ring 4 Kevin Chessum (CR4KC) challenge. I thought I would take advantage of the proverbial 'summer lull' to provide an update.

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Economics

Euro sitting duck

With the European Central Bank spelling out monetary policy for the next eighteen months, they could be a victim of developments elsewhere. Against a backdrop of slowing Eurozone growth and lacklustre inflation, the US seems likely to hike several times and increase Treasury supply by over $1 trillion, potentially tightening global credit conditions significantly and leaving Europe exposed. 

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Economics

Good cop, bad cop - is Trump a negotiating genius?

On the face of it, Donald Trump has proven to be an aggressive and erratic US president. Yet academic research shows 'good cop, bad cop' works as a negotiating technique. Although we're seeing a lot of 'bad cop' Trump at the moment in the trade war, is this just a negotiating tactic?

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Economics

US-Sino relations - shifting grounds

How does the potential trade war look from China’s angle? Although a full-blown trade war between the US and China is not our base case, there is still a lot to consider. The macro impact currently appears to be very manageable, although even if it all blows over, we observe a tectonic shift in the US-Sino relationship.

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