Video

Economics

US shale oil and the consumer (video)

During my guest hosting on CNBC, the conversation veered onto the outlook for oil prices, a perennial struggle for economists. Fortunately, the discussion flowed back towards what this means for the US consumer.

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Economics

Goldilocks? (video)

Not deterred by my questioning last quarter, Tim has kindly returned to the quick-fire questions hot seat!  

This quarter I ask about the risk of a China hard landing (as voted by you), what the risks are to growth globally, and why wage growth matters. The big question is really - for how long can the global economy remain at just the right temperature? 

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Portfolio Thinking

French Toast

Markets toasted France on Sunday night (April 23) as Macron made the second round to challenge Marine Le Pen. It broke a sequence of shock election results in G7 countries and for once meant our Asset Allocation team got a full night’s sleep (see Sunday Bleus which we updated live on Sunday night).

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Economics

US – China trade and the threat of protectionism

The US runs a massive trade deficit with China. President Trump is likely to continue to talk tough, but we do not believe it is in his interests to spark a trade war. Listen to my views below.

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Economics

Regime change on the horizon?

In the first of our quarterly quick-fire questions, we have Tim in the hot seat! Tim discusses President Trump’s policies, worries around protectionism and the latest Fed hike. He also considers market expectations for European Central Bank tapering, where a regime change looks to be on the horizon…

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Economics

Small beer

Skip to the third minute to hear my thoughts ahead of the UK Chancellor’s first Budget. We didn’t expect much in terms of stimulus, with the Chancellor choosing to keep his powder dry for any Brexit-related downturn in the future.

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Strategy

Cyclical views and structural blues

Our incoming CIO, Anton Eser, talked on Bloomberg about the structural imbalances in the world. In my view, this is a ‘must see' clip for every investor. While we agree that these imbalances exist, here are some additional factors to keep in mind.

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