Video

Strategy

Cloud gazing

All seems well with markets, but there are always clouds on the horizon. With price inflation remaining contained, one risk we think deserves more airtime is how a corporate margin squeeze could cause the next downturn. The next US Federal Reserve chair is also a mystery that could rock markets and President Trump’s objectives will be central to what candidates have to promise if they’re to get the big job.

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Economics

Keeping an eye on lithium battery prices

Recently on CNBC, I discussed technological disruption in the auto industry from car sharing, autonomy and electric vehicles. I argued that batteries were likely to be similar to microchips – falling 20% in price every year – and could therefore disrupt the internal combustion engine.

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Economics

The Fed, inflation and fiscal policy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the US inflation outlook and Fed reaction to potential US fiscal stimulus.

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Economics

US shale oil and the consumer (video)

During my guest hosting on CNBC, the conversation veered onto the outlook for oil prices, a perennial struggle for economists. Fortunately, the discussion flowed back towards what this means for the US consumer.

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Economics

Goldilocks? (video)

Not deterred by my questioning last quarter, Tim has kindly returned to the quick-fire questions hot seat!  

This quarter I ask about the risk of a China hard landing (as voted by you), what the risks are to growth globally, and why wage growth matters. The big question is really - for how long can the global economy remain at just the right temperature? 

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Portfolio Thinking

French Toast

Markets toasted France on Sunday night (April 23) as Macron made the second round to challenge Marine Le Pen. It broke a sequence of shock election results in G7 countries and for once meant our Asset Allocation team got a full night’s sleep (see Sunday Bleus which we updated live on Sunday night).

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Economics

US – China trade and the threat of protectionism

The US runs a massive trade deficit with China. President Trump is likely to continue to talk tough, but we do not believe it is in his interests to spark a trade war. Listen to my views below.

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