United States

Economics

Can some good come from a trade war?

Without adjustment on the home front, we believe that President Donald Trump's push to reduce the trade deficit is unlikely to improve the US trade balance, or boost domestic employment and growth. However, his outspoken approach and questioning of the prevailing trade system may be the very jolt that global trade negotiators need to update their thinking and move ahead with a constantly changing global economy and patterns of trade.

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Economics

Let's Twist Again

The long-end of the US yield curve is at its flattest for over a decade, risking distortions in the economy as the Fed raises rates. If this continues, at what point will the central bank get its dancing shoes on and consider Operation 'Twist Again'?

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Economics

Without ARMs, does the US economy have legs?

The US might be less sensitive to interest rate increases than commonly thought.

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Strategy

Five Star Radio

The new political paradigm has thrown up another populist government in Italy, threatening the European project. Meanwhile in the US, could "Operation Twist Again" come into play as investors stress about ever-flatter yield curves?

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Economics

US-Sino relations - shifting grounds

How does the potential trade war look from China’s angle? Although a full-blown trade war between the US and China is not our base case, there is still a lot to consider. The macro impact currently appears to be very manageable, although even if it all blows over, we observe a tectonic shift in the US-Sino relationship.

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Economics

Can you win a trade war?

'War on trade' is the topic of the moment, but in my view it is an element of a wider political trend. Here's a whistle-stop tour of what's happened thus far. I'll then hand over to Erik in a future post to cover things from China's angle.

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Economics

The ant and the grasshopper

What happens when babyboomers retire? Have we saved enough for retirement or are we living beyond our means? Academics argue high savings by prime-aged babyboomers in their 'summer' have depressed real interest rates in recent decades. But the community is split as to what happens next as 'winter' comes.

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