United States

Strategy

Land of slope and glory

The US yield curve has consistently flattened since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy several years ago. History strongly suggests that this is an entirely normal market reaction to a rate hiking cycle. If short-term interest rates continue to rise at the pace we expect, we could well be looking at an inverted curve by the middle of 2019.

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Strategy

Tariffs and Trump-induced turmoil

Shifting market narratives suggest the latest squall may not have passed, even though the solid underpinning of the global economy is likely to prevail in the coming months.

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Strategy

Peak Bad Trump?

The pendulum has now swung in favour of Bad Trump but has it reached its peak?

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Portfolio Thinking

Do you have a Scooby Doo about the active / passive debate?

The active versus passive debate consistently generates conflicting advice. The potential for active managers to side-step a falling market is one frequently cited factor. But have regional equity funds actually outperformed their respective indices during market corrections?

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Economics

Trillion dollar binge

'Goldilocks' is giving way to stronger US growth and potential inflation concerns, with Congress fanning the overheating economy with even more fiscal stimulus. This is likely to prove a textbook example of a political business cycle.

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Economics

Is a US recession looming?

Last week saw the largest monthly rise in core US inflation since March 2005. Does this mean the sun is setting on this economic cycle?

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Portfolio Thinking

UK - The inflation nation?

Unlike their US or Eurozone counterparts, UK pension funds will readily pay quite a premium for inflation protection. However, that premium is relatively unattractive for multi-asset investors, who we think can find better ways to manage UK and global inflation risks.

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