United Kingdom

Portfolio Thinking

US inflation – vlogging a dead horse?

With US inflation picking up much more slowly than expected in recent years, markets seem to be ignoring the cyclical risks. We think that's a mistake and one that could come back to bite investors. Here's a chance to find out why and what we're doing about it...

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Economics

Unreactive function

Here’s my take on the latest UK GDP numbers, the economic outlook and what that means for the Bank of England’s reaction function on CNBC.

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Economics

Only 240 days to go….

After a tricky month for Prime Minister Theresa May, Parliament is in recess and the clock is ticking away for a Brexit deal. What sort of deal might the UK get, and what should we be looking out for?

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Economics

Don't shock me now

I'm not sure exactly why Queen's "Don't stop me now" has been stuck in my head...something to do with football and wishing not to get knocked out maybe...we were having such a good time! Anyway, as I say in this Sky News interview on the Ian King Show, only a big shock would stop the Bank of England from hiking in August. I also discuss the merits of the new monthly GDP data.

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Economics

Will our children live longer than us?

For decades, demographers were too pessimistic on life expectancy and had to revise up their forecasts. Are they now too optimistic? Recent data suggest that UK ‘death rates’ have stopped improving. If sustained, life expectancy projections would need to be revised down. This would have profound implications for government and pension finances.

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Macrobites

Financial football: The Multi-Asset World Cup

While the 2018 football World Cup is still in the early stages, we have already been holding our own multi-asset tournament, in which the 32 competing nations battle for goals on several economic and financial criteria. Which teams will go far, scoring goals on economic excellence, and which ones will flunk at the final financial whistle?

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Strategy

Don't underestimate the power of the people

Remember the EU referendum? The City thought the British public would see the economic benefits of EU membership and not wish to loosen ties with our closest trading partners. Turns out the City was wrong and had misread the mood of the nation. The current discussion around nationalisation has some worrying similarities, so is the City making the same mistake again?

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