Statistics

Statistics

Strategy

Grey is the new black (or white, or beige)

As our attentions turn to outlooks for the year ahead, it's best to avoid messages from perma-bears, perma-bulls and the hopelessly vague. However, clairvoyance is not a strategy. Instead we should try to favour sound analysis and be more willing to think (and talk) in probabilistic terms, or as I like to call it, shades of grey.

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Macrobites

Déjà vu all over again

It's been a week since Donald Trump’s victory took almost everyone by surprise. We always argued that his election was more likely than it seemed following the UK referendum, but it was not our base case. This has made us wonder what went wrong. Could a Trump victory have been predicted by pollsters and bookies, or by us?

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Macrobites

Greece beneath the headlines

It is over a year since the last big Greek drama, but recovery remains elusive and the danger of a sudden convulsion has not passed.

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Economics

Home sweet home?

The housing market was already expected to slow going into the summer. In the immediate aftermath of the of EU referendum, however, fears about the UK housing market intensified.

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Strategy

Spot the odd one out

The below market consensus pricing of European and US inflation markets contrasts starkly with the picture in the UK. British investors looking for protection against a global (rather than country-specific) inflation shock could find better value overseas.

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Economics

Uncertainty Principle

The recent surge in economic and political uncertainty is likely to push the UK into recession and poses downside risks to European and US growth.

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Economics

Lies, damned lies and youth unemployment statistics

It has been a very popular narrative in the run-up to the referendum to suggest that the euro zone economy is failing a generation of job-seekers. However, it would appear that this 'conventional wisdom' doesn't stand up to a close inspection of the facts.

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