As our attentions turn to outlooks for the year ahead, it's best to avoid messages from perma-bears, perma-bulls and the hopelessly vague. However, clairvoyance is not a strategy. Instead we should try to favour sound analysis and be more willing to think (and talk) in probabilistic terms, or as I like to call it, shades of grey.
It's been a week since Donald Trump’s victory took almost everyone by surprise. We always argued that his election was more likely than it seemed following the UK referendum, but it was not our base case. This has made us wonder what went wrong. Could a Trump victory have been predicted by pollsters and bookies, or by us?
It has been a very popular narrative in the run-up to the referendum to suggest that the euro zone economy is failing a generation of job-seekers. However, it would appear that this 'conventional wisdom' doesn't stand up to a close inspection of the facts.