Recovery

Recovery

Economics

2.4: Legacy

Low US wage inflation seems to be a legacy of the collapse in commodity prices. As with the new series of 24, a plot twist should inevitably provide redemption to inflation hawks. Wages should pick up in line with headline inflation as the oil effect fades.

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Macrobites

Oils well that ends well

US corporate bad loans appear to have peaked, suggesting limited ‘spillover’ from the oil sector to the broader economy. This should keep banks lending, the economy growing and the Fed hiking.

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Macrobites

Stocking up for Christmas

With global industrial confidence jumping to a two-year high in October, the recovery in global manufacturing, heralded by our inventory analysis in the spring, appears to be underway.

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