Recession

Economics

Chinese inflation: Going hog-wild?

On Friday, we are likely to receive confirmation that Chinese inflation jumped to almost 3% in February, up from 1.5% previously. Higher Chinese inflation conjures up scary scenarios. It could force the People's Bank of China into hiking interest rates when the economy is slowing and saddled with massive debt. It could also add to building inflationary pressures in the US and UK, hastening interest hikes and weighing on equity and bond prices. But relax! The jump in Chinese inflation shouldn’t trigger any of this.

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Economics

Is a US recession looming?

Last week saw the largest monthly rise in core US inflation since March 2005. Does this mean the sun is setting on this economic cycle?

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Macrobites

Three charts on ebbing misery

Three charts, one theme. Fear has been ebbing away in markets...it's almost gone.

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Macrobites

Looking for a game changer

Following the recent release of our CIO Investment Outlook from Anton Eser, I’m proud to introduce Anton’s thought-provoking and non-consensus call. To round off our look at the New Year, should investors be wary of a severe market correction in 2018?

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Economics

Clueless, but not complacent

As the old adage goes, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. So instead, we explain some of our forecasting philosophy and where, if at all, we might be able to provide some insight about the economic outlook.

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Economics

Cycling uphill

The markets appear to have given up on President Trump delivering his campaign promise to boost growth. Yet despite the delay, there are signs this could be about to change with profound implications for the current goldilocks environment.

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Economics

Escape velocity?

Are we moving away from secular stagnation and towards normalization?

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