Historically, the probability of a recession starting in any given year has been independent of the length of the preceding expansion. That makes economic forecasting much more like rolling dice than looking after a guinea pig. Thinking that we are "overdue" a recession because the expansion is "long in the tooth" is an example of the gambler's fallacy and can lead to erroneous investment conclusions.
Having visited China at least once a year over the last 10 years, two weeks ago I was back in Beijing, swapping my Bloomberg screen for a ‘real world’ view of the world’s second largest economy. Meeting with friends, academics, investors and policymakers, here’s my take on what I saw and heard.