Recession

Economics

Clueless, but not complacent

As the old adage goes, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. So instead, we explain some of our forecasting philosophy and where, if at all, we might be able to provide some insight about the economic outlook.

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Economics

Cycling uphill

The markets appear to have given up on President Trump delivering his campaign promise to boost growth. Yet despite the delay, there are signs this could be about to change with profound implications for the current goldilocks environment.

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Economics

Escape velocity?

Are we moving away from secular stagnation and towards normalization?

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Economics

Is economic forecasting more like rolling dice or owning a guinea pig?

Historically, the probability of a recession starting in any given year has been independent of the length of the preceding expansion. That makes economic forecasting much more like rolling dice than looking after a guinea pig. Thinking that we are "overdue" a recession because the expansion is "long in the tooth" is an example of the gambler's fallacy and can lead to erroneous investment conclusions.

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Economics

Overstimulated

Trump is promising fiscal candy and markets seem to be on a sugar high. Will this end in tears?

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Strategy

A postcard from Beijing

Having visited China at least once a year over the last 10 years, two weeks ago I was back in Beijing, swapping my Bloomberg screen for a ‘real world’ view of the world’s second largest economy. Meeting with friends, academics, investors and policymakers, here’s my take on what I saw and heard.

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Economics

A return to boom and bust?

There is huge uncertainty around the nature of Trump's policy changes. But is it good economics to cut taxes and raise spending just as the economy reaches full employment?

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