Productivity

Productivity

Strategy

Focus on the horse, not the car

Whilst it can be enticing to focus on emerging technologies, it’s perhaps more important for investors to focus on the disrupted incumbents left in their wake.

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Economics

We don't need no education

In 1979, Pink Floyd cried "Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!”. Ironically, this marked a turning point. The contribution to US wage growth from educational attainment appears to have peaked since the early 80s. This is just another brick in the wall in our argument of weaker US trend growth.

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Economics

The Peak of Man (Utd)

Just as footballers peak with age, US trend growth has been dragged down by babyboomers stagnating as they enter their 50s. An ageing population means the US economy, like Man Utd, is ‘Wayning’, with its best days behind it.

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Economics

Economics trumps politics

Despite the surprising election result, the US growth outlook remains favourable. Delving into the detail, we find there is likely to be some rotation away from the consumer towards investment.

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Economics

Good model-keeping for economists

Forecasting is an economist’s bread and butter so it would be strange to not have anything on the topic. For now, the macro outlook appears to be continued steady global growth supported by exceptionally loose monetary policy.

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Economics

The mystery of the missing dot

One FOMC participant did not submit their longer-run forecast for the fed funds rate for the June summary of economic projections. In a provocative speech the rebel has revealed themselves.

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Economics

Squaring the circle

The US economy is barely expected to grow in Q1 2016. Yet seasonal patterns continue to distort the data. Q1 growth is usually UNDERestimated by 1.25% while Q2 is OVERestimated by 0.8%. So could we see a sharp swing in growth expectations and investor sentiment in coming months?

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