In 1979, Pink Floyd cried "Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!”. Ironically, this marked a turning point. The contribution to US wage growth from educational attainment appears to have peaked since the early 80s. This is just another brick in the wall in our argument of weaker US trend growth.
The US economy is barely expected to grow in Q1 2016. Yet seasonal patterns continue to distort the data. Q1 growth is usually UNDERestimated by 1.25% while Q2 is OVERestimated by 0.8%. So could we see a sharp swing in growth expectations and investor sentiment in coming months?