Politics

Macrobites

A filibusted flush

The filibuster is an important procedural device in the US Senate that makes it significantly harder to break the gridlock between Republicans and Democrats. President Trump argues that the "very outdated filibuster must go". But what is it? Why is it important? And what are the investment implications of throwing it on the Congressional scrapheap?

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Economics

Does the EU have any teeth?

We look at the ways the EU can affect policies in member states ranging from diplomatic suasion to legal challenges and financial penalties, or changes to the EU budget, in the context of controversial laws passed recently in Poland.

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Economics

Cycling uphill

The markets appear to have given up on President Trump delivering his campaign promise to boost growth. Yet despite the delay, there are signs this could be about to change with profound implications for the current goldilocks environment.

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Strategy

Focus on the horse, not the car

Whilst it can be enticing to focus on emerging technologies, it’s perhaps more important for investors to focus on the disrupted incumbents left in their wake.

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Strategy

Populist allocation

The French have elected an establishment President - surely this marks the end of road of the Political Paradigm? Far from it! More than 45% of French voters cast their ballot for a populist in the first round, more than ever before. In part 3 of this blog series I look at how the theme impacts financial markets and asset prices.

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Macrobites

Le Pen is mightier than the sword, but not Emmanuel Macron

In a largely anticipated result, Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidential election. The contest has been one of the most closely watched political and market-relevant events in Europe, and the most hotly contested French election in recent history. But with a winning margin of 66% vs Marine Le Pen’s 34%, Macron’s victory is decisive. Turnout was low by French standards at 74%.

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Macrobites

Le moment est venu

With the final round of the French elections just days away, the political moment that people have been talking about since President Trump’s election has arrived. While the polls point to an overwhelming win for Macron, I take a quick look at the ways in which this election could still turn, and also the reasons why this time could be different to Brexit and Trump.

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