Politics

Strategy

Five Star Radio

The new political paradigm has thrown up another populist government in Italy, threatening the European project. Meanwhile in the US, could "Operation Twist Again" come into play as investors stress about ever-flatter yield curves?

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Economics

Can you win a trade war?

'War on trade' is the topic of the moment, but in my view it is an element of a wider political trend. Here's a whistle-stop tour of what's happened thus far. I'll then hand over to Erik in a future post to cover things from China's angle.

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Strategy

Oil’s well that ends well

Even though tensions in the Middle East have helped pep up prices of late, the shale revolution has brought down medium-term risks to oil prices and dramatically reduced future price expectations.

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Economics

Tequila sunrise

On the face of it, things don’t look good for Mexico; and that’s reflected in asset prices. Its largest trading partner has threatened to scrap a free trade agreement that's been in place for almost a quarter century. In addition, a populist is leading in the polls to replace President Peña in the July elections. But look again and you might see a country potentially on the cusp of a spectacular comeback.

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Macrobites

Politics, policy and (market) peaks

While our forecasts for 2018 follow a similar trajectory to 2017, a healthy dose of potential risk lurks in the shadows. For a different take on the Asset Allocation team’s outlook for next year, here’s an insight into the regular debate at our team meetings in the first of a three-part series focusing on our discussions on each of the three Ps of politics, policy and (market) peaks.

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Economics

A postcard from South Africa

The outlook for the South African economy and assets remains uncertain. Adding to the uncertainty are the upcoming elections of ANC leadership which could bring a range of outcomes for the market.

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Economics

Car-ry on spending?

Just like cars, it costs more to maintain an older person than a younger one. Government borrowing could rise by 3% of GDP over the next 20 years as a result of ageing. To offset this, the UK government has squeezed the rest of the public sector in an attempt to balance the books. This seems politically unsustainable. Is the government about to reverse course by ending public sector pay caps?

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