Politics

Economics

The ECB’s Italian Job

“We trust that the government will take all the appropriate actions” – Jean-Claude Trichet. Mario Draghi. That was the sign-off for the now infamous ECB letter sent to Silvio Berlusconi’s government during the height of the European sovereign debt crisis. Nearly seven years on, Italy has once again experienced financial market turmoil and the ECB this week will no doubt be asked many questions about the situation.

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Strategy

Five Star Radio

The new political paradigm has thrown up another populist government in Italy, threatening the European project. Meanwhile in the US, could "Operation Twist Again" come into play as investors stress about ever-flatter yield curves?

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Economics

Can you win a trade war?

'War on trade' is the topic of the moment, but in my view it is an element of a wider political trend. Here's a whistle-stop tour of what's happened thus far. I'll then hand over to Erik in a future post to cover things from China's angle.

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Strategy

Oil’s well that ends well

Even though tensions in the Middle East have helped pep up prices of late, the shale revolution has brought down medium-term risks to oil prices and dramatically reduced future price expectations.

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Economics

Tequila sunrise

On the face of it, things don’t look good for Mexico; and that’s reflected in asset prices. Its largest trading partner has threatened to scrap a free trade agreement that's been in place for almost a quarter century. In addition, a populist is leading in the polls to replace President Peña in the July elections. But look again and you might see a country potentially on the cusp of a spectacular comeback.

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Macrobites

Politics, policy and (market) peaks

While our forecasts for 2018 follow a similar trajectory to 2017, a healthy dose of potential risk lurks in the shadows. For a different take on the Asset Allocation team’s outlook for next year, here’s an insight into the regular debate at our team meetings in the first of a three-part series focusing on our discussions on each of the three Ps of politics, policy and (market) peaks.

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Economics

A postcard from South Africa

The outlook for the South African economy and assets remains uncertain. Adding to the uncertainty are the upcoming elections of ANC leadership which could bring a range of outcomes for the market.

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