Oil

Economics

Keeping an eye on lithium battery prices

Recently on CNBC, I discussed technological disruption in the auto industry from car sharing, autonomy and electric vehicles. I argued that batteries were likely to be similar to microchips – falling 20% in price every year – and could therefore disrupt the internal combustion engine.

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Economics

Gaming Saudi oil production

OPEC members have a long history of breaching production quotas, which contributes to scepticism about current cuts. Game theory explains why this pattern persists and also why the Saudis often act, as cartel leader, if it becomes too widespread.

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Strategy

Calling OPEC

Oil price spikes have contributed to almost all US recessions since 1950. But with the US shale revolution, most investors are more concerned with how low oil prices could go. Ultimately, OPEC will decide the answer to that question.  Our analysis suggests OPEC will continue to limit production when necessary, with the aim of generally keeping prices between $45-$55 outside of recessions and significant new supply disruptions. 

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Economics

US shale oil and the consumer (video)

During my guest hosting on CNBC, the conversation veered onto the outlook for oil prices, a perennial struggle for economists. Fortunately, the discussion flowed back towards what this means for the US consumer.

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Portfolio Thinking

Missing the cut; tales from the rough

The plan was to link to my latest cameo on Bloomberg TV, but on a busy news day I didn't make the cut to get a clip on their website. Undeterred, here's summary of what we covered on oil, US unemployment and inflation.

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Portfolio Thinking

Assuming the position

We worry about sharing popular investment ideas, since the view is probably in the price. But how do we know if a trade is crowded? Positioning information can give us a clue, although it requires careful interpretation.

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Strategy

US shale – Dark at the end of the tunnel

Rocketing rig counts mean US production could surprise to the upside, with record shale production levels likely by 2018. This could threaten the anticipated crude market rebalancing and has been a major factor behind our negative view on oil prices since late 2016.

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