Mid-Cycle

Economics

Goldilocks - will the porridge ever overheat?

We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?

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Economics

Clueless, but not complacent

As the old adage goes, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. So instead, we explain some of our forecasting philosophy and where, if at all, we might be able to provide some insight about the economic outlook.

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Economics

Reservations about reserve workers

Just as football teams have reserve players they can use during the busy Christmas period, the Fed believes the US economy still has a large 'reserve army' of 'discouraged' workers who can keep wages low. We have reservations about this.

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Strategy

What investment clues does our 'macro mapping' currently offer?

In his recent post, James concludes that central bankers, like his bicycle lessons for his son Michael, appear to have stabilised the cycle. If this is right, what could it mean for markets?

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Economics

Stabilising the cycle

Just as I switch between holding and letting go of my son as he learns to ride his bike, monetary policymakers might 'let go' of ever-looser monetary policy in the coming months as their previous interventions seem to have stabilised the world economy.

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Economics

Inventory cycles - a forecasting nightmare

US GDP has been dragged down by a sharper-than-expected inventory cycle, but this should reverse in the second half of the year.

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Portfolio Thinking

Don’t sweat the small stuff

This summer saw “Cheerleader” become Billboard's top hit, the return of the jumpsuit for women and ‘monochrome’ outfits for men. Unfortunately most fund managers haven't been able to enjoy these trends as August stocks saw their worst performance since 2011, it was pretty much all hands on desk.

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