We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?
In his recent post, James concludes that central bankers, like his bicycle lessons for his son Michael, appear to have stabilised the cycle. If this is right, what could it mean for markets?
This summer saw “Cheerleader” become Billboard's top hit, the return of the jumpsuit for women and ‘monochrome’ outfits for men. Unfortunately most fund managers haven't been able to enjoy these trends as August stocks saw their worst performance since 2011, it was pretty much all hands on desk.