With the Fed and ECB unwinding QE, what happens when we come off the meds? There are signs that the patient (the economy) has healed, suggesting limited withdrawal effects. While addiction and placebo effects could still increase risk premia, low inflation reduces the risk of going ‘cold turkey’.
All seems well with markets, but there are always clouds on the horizon. With price inflation remaining contained, one risk we think deserves more airtime is how a corporate margin squeeze could cause the next downturn. The next US Federal Reserve chair is also a mystery that could rock markets and President Trump’s objectives will be central to what candidates have to promise if they’re to get the big job.
As deflationary disappointment continues, we think that structural drivers are making it hard to generate wage inflation. As central banks all try to bluff it out, I take a tour of the pressures facing the US, UK and Europe and what we think it means for asset classes.
If 2016 was the financial market equivalent of gripping TV drama with surprise plot twists, 2017 has been the year of test pattern TV. So far in 2017, worries about North Korea, the French elections, or President Trump-related developments have only had short-lived and localised impacts on markets. So is there anything we need to be watching this summer?
In an unscheduled announcement, Theresa May has declared her intention to call a general election on 8 June. This snap election will be almost three years ahead of schedule. Below we address the five most pertinent questions likely to be on investors’ minds.
December is a good time to slow down (just a little) and take stock. 2016 has certainly been a year for the political history books. As we approach 2017, the main thread running through most of our thoughts is how we adapt to these new changes and move forward.