Market movement

Strategy

The Butterfly Effect

I’m passionate about macro investing. As long as the markets are open, I don’t think about much else. Some people call it passion, others call it addiction.

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Strategy

Tariffs and Trump-induced turmoil

Shifting market narratives suggest the latest squall may not have passed, even though the solid underpinning of the global economy is likely to prevail in the coming months.

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Economics

CAPE fear

On some indicators equities look expensive – the CAPE ratio is the highest since the dot.com boom. But with interest rates at multi-decade lows, shouldn't equity earnings yields be low too? Rising interest rates pose a threat to valuations, but models suggest this could be offset as long as recession fears remain low.

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Strategy

Why the market wobble may be a Taper Tantrum 2.0

We are inclined to lean against the recent sell-off, which appears to be driven by excessive investor optimism and positioning.

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Strategy

The euro rides the wave

Many 2017 outlooks included the sentence "in a strong US dollar environment..." Expectations for the US dollar immediately after the election of President Donald Trump were elevated, while the euro continued to face headwinds. As often happens with forecasts, it couldn't have been more wrong. So what's next?

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Portfolio Thinking

Adding science to investing in an uncertain world

We live in an uncertain world. With Brexit, Chinese growth and US policy just three of countless risks facing the ongoing bull market in risk assets, this is as true today as it ever was. So what’s an investor to do?

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Economics

Mario's Marvellous Medicine

With the Fed and ECB unwinding QE, what happens when we come off the meds? There are signs that the patient (the economy) has healed, suggesting limited withdrawal effects. While addiction and placebo effects could still increase risk premia, low inflation reduces the risk of going ‘cold turkey’.

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