Market Cycle

Economics

Yo-yo clubs

Leicester city’s rise and fall over the past year mirrors that of financial risk premiums. Fundamentals are probably average but performance can oscillate wildly. The Fed wants to see monetary conditions tighten: this can come through a stronger dollar, higher risk-free rates or increased risk premiums.

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Strategy

Cyclical views and structural blues

Our incoming CIO, Anton Eser, talked on Bloomberg about the structural imbalances in the world. In my view, this is a ‘must see' clip for every investor. While we agree that these imbalances exist, here are some additional factors to keep in mind.

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Strategy

What investment clues does our 'macro mapping' currently offer?

In his recent post, James concludes that central bankers, like his bicycle lessons for his son Michael, appear to have stabilised the cycle. If this is right, what could it mean for markets?

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Strategy

Is the rising LIBOR-OIS spread a sign of increasing risk?

The regulatory regime that applies to US money market mutual funds is changing significantly in mid-October. The side effect of this change has been a notable increase in bank funding costs (i.e. higher LIBOR-OIS spreads). While they are relevant for US credit investors, these recent developments tell us nothing about market concerns around bank solvency.

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Economics

Kickstart the Kitkat machine

Global manufacturing inventories are falling for the first time in two years. This suggests the industrial cycle could be bottoming out.

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