Market Cycle

Economics

Trump's gamble with the US economy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the consequences of the potential US fiscal stimulus for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.

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Portfolio Thinking

Smash hits and crash dips

2017 marks a number of financial anniversaries; the 1987 stockmarket crash, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and the beginning of the global financial crisis. As we haven’t really experienced an extreme boom or crisis recently, looking back will be a refresher as to what could occur, but also provide a wider perspective on investment returns. Nothing is as evocative of the past as its music, so we accompany our look back with a soundtrack of those hits we think have withstood the test of time, and those hits that we would rather forget.

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Economics

Yo-yo clubs

Leicester city’s rise and fall over the past year mirrors that of financial risk premiums. Fundamentals are probably average but performance can oscillate wildly. The Fed wants to see monetary conditions tighten: this can come through a stronger dollar, higher risk-free rates or increased risk premiums.

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Strategy

Cyclical views and structural blues

Our incoming CIO, Anton Eser, talked on Bloomberg about the structural imbalances in the world. In my view, this is a ‘must see' clip for every investor. While we agree that these imbalances exist, here are some additional factors to keep in mind.

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Strategy

What investment clues does our 'macro mapping' currently offer?

In his recent post, James concludes that central bankers, like his bicycle lessons for his son Michael, appear to have stabilised the cycle. If this is right, what could it mean for markets?

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Strategy

Is the rising LIBOR-OIS spread a sign of increasing risk?

The regulatory regime that applies to US money market mutual funds is changing significantly in mid-October. The side effect of this change has been a notable increase in bank funding costs (i.e. higher LIBOR-OIS spreads). While they are relevant for US credit investors, these recent developments tell us nothing about market concerns around bank solvency.

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Economics

Kickstart the Kitkat machine

Global manufacturing inventories are falling for the first time in two years. This suggests the industrial cycle could be bottoming out.

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