Late cycle

Economics

A perfect recession indicator?

The US Senior Loan Officer Survey is signalling low recession risk, but how reliable is this indicator?

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Economics

US thrift – saving grace?

US households have apparently been saving far more than we realised. Could this affect how much longer the economic cycle lasts?

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Economics

Let's Twist Again

The long-end of the US yield curve is at its flattest for over a decade, risking distortions in the economy as the Fed raises rates. If this continues, at what point will the central bank get its dancing shoes on and consider Operation 'Twist Again'?

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Strategy

And the beat goes on

Market volatility has picked up, but as multi-asset investors we must be careful about derisking too much or too often. Otherwise we risk missing out on upside for our portfolios. Given cyclical inflation pressures and quantitative tightening, the risks are higher in 2018, but as long as we remain confident in the fundamentals we'll remain invested and try to dance to this different tune.

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Economics

Trillion dollar binge

'Goldilocks' is giving way to stronger US growth and potential inflation concerns, with Congress fanning the overheating economy with even more fiscal stimulus. This is likely to prove a textbook example of a political business cycle.

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Economics

Economy gastronomy

'Resource utilisation' is red hot, yet global inflation remains subdued. Is this because we’ve been reheating the economy from ‘frozen’ rather than ‘chilled’?

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Economics

Fool in the shower

Congress has passed a surprisingly powerful fiscal stimulus which markets appear to be underestimating. Strong growth might be cheered initially, but given that the US economy is already operating at full capacity, it risks overheating.

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