We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?
Leicester city’s rise and fall over the past year mirrors that of financial risk premiums. Fundamentals are probably average but performance can oscillate wildly. The Fed wants to see monetary conditions tighten: this can come through a stronger dollar, higher risk-free rates or increased risk premiums.
Historically, the probability of a recession starting in any given year has been independent of the length of the preceding expansion. That makes economic forecasting much more like rolling dice than looking after a guinea pig. Thinking that we are "overdue" a recession because the expansion is "long in the tooth" is an example of the gambler's fallacy and can lead to erroneous investment conclusions.