Inflation

Inflation

Strategy

Cloud gazing

All seems well with markets, but there are always clouds on the horizon. With price inflation remaining contained, one risk we think deserves more airtime is how a corporate margin squeeze could cause the next downturn. The next US Federal Reserve chair is also a mystery that could rock markets and President Trump’s objectives will be central to what candidates have to promise if they’re to get the big job.

Read more

Strategy

Kabuki and Super Mario

There doesn’t seem to be much interest in Japanese investment ideas by foreigners, which makes me wonder whether we are collectively missing a trick. Whether you consider culture, technology, economics or social developments, Japan remains quite different from the western perception of what is mainstream. This makes it an interesting part of the investment universe as it could provide idiosyncratic, diversifying investment opportunities.

Read more

Portfolio Thinking

Smash hits and crash dips

2017 marks a number of financial anniversaries; the 1987 stockmarket crash, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and the beginning of the global financial crisis. As we haven’t really experienced an extreme boom or crisis recently, looking back will be a refresher as to what could occur, but also provide a wider perspective on investment returns. Nothing is as evocative of the past as its music, so we accompany our look back with a soundtrack of those hits we think have withstood the test of time, and those hits that we would rather forget.

Read more

Economics

Tremors, tensions and typhoons

The second part of my Asia macro tour swung by Tokyo where in a similar set of meetings I witnessed an even greater sense of belief in the status quo. The impression was that the situation is currently fine, so why make unpopular changes?

Read more

Economics

Hurricane Harvey

As the floodwaters recede from Hurricane Harvey and another storm is brewing, we attempt to assess the impact of natural disasters on the US economy.

Read more

Economics

The Fed, inflation and fiscal policy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the US inflation outlook and Fed reaction to potential US fiscal stimulus.

Read more

Economics

Champions League clique

The rise of Chelsea and Man City shows that it takes a lot of money to break into the Champions League elite, but once you're there, it creates a virtuous circle. The same is true for inflation. There is a self-reinforcing loop of high inflation expectations, wages and prices. But the 2014 oil shock looks to have knocked the US and Japan out. Consumers' inflation expectations remain stubbornly low.

Read more

All posts: 42

Page No: 1

NoOfPages: 6

All posts: /tags/inflation/?page=2