Inflation

Inflation

Economics

Champions League clique

The rise of Chelsea and Man City shows that it takes a lot of money to break into the Champions League elite, but once you're there, it creates a virtuous circle. The same is true for inflation. There is a self-reinforcing loop of high inflation expectations, wages and prices. But the 2014 oil shock looks to have knocked the US and Japan out. Consumers' inflation expectations remain stubbornly low.

Read more

Economics

Cycling uphill

The markets appear to have given up on President Trump delivering his campaign promise to boost growth. Yet despite the delay, there are signs this could be about to change with profound implications for the current goldilocks environment.

Read more

Strategy

Real podcast problems

As deflationary disappointment continues, we think that structural drivers are making it hard to generate wage inflation. As central banks all try to bluff it out, I take a tour of the pressures facing the US, UK and Europe and what we think it means for asset classes.

Read more

Economics

We don't need no education

In 1979, Pink Floyd cried "Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!”. Ironically, this marked a turning point. The contribution to US wage growth from educational attainment appears to have peaked since the early 80s. This is just another brick in the wall in our argument of weaker US trend growth.

Read more

Economics

US shale oil and the consumer (video)

During my guest hosting on CNBC, the conversation veered onto the outlook for oil prices, a perennial struggle for economists. Fortunately, the discussion flowed back towards what this means for the US consumer.

Read more

Economics

Goldilocks? (video)

Not deterred by my questioning last quarter, Tim has kindly returned to the quick-fire questions hot seat!  

This quarter I ask about the risk of a China hard landing (as voted by you), what the risks are to growth globally, and why wage growth matters. The big question is really - for how long can the global economy remain at just the right temperature? 

Read more

Economics

Draghiing it out

Now that the French Presidential elections are out of the way and investors are less concerned about euro area political risks, focus has turned to the next major ‘event’ - what is the ECB is going to do?

Read more

All posts: 36

Page No: 1

NoOfPages: 6

All posts: /tags/inflation/?page=2