Inflation

Inflation

Macrobites

Are we approaching a market peak?

With the equity rally looking set to complete a ninth year – the investment question on everyone’s mind is simple: can it continue?

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Macrobites

What policy challenges could move markets?

The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve all tightened monetary policy in 2017. Should investors be prepared for more of the same next year?

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Economics

Goldilocks - will the porridge ever overheat?

We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?

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Economics

Trump's gamble with the US economy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the consequences of the potential US fiscal stimulus for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.

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Economics

Why did the BoE just hike? What happens next?

The BoE is in a difficult spot. Lower trend growth and a weaker pound mean that if it doesn't hike rates, inflation could remain above target. But if it raises rates too fast, the economy could be hurt should downside risks materialise.

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Economics

Why is US wage inflation still subdued?

US wage inflation remains subdued. Many believe this is due to workers' fears about automation and offshoring. Yet US consumers believe jobs are 'easy to get' and companies struggle to find labour. This contrasts with Germany in 2004 when the EU expanded eastwards. So second-round effects from low oil prices and ageing demographics appear more plausible explanations.

 

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Economics

Back to the 1960s

US core inflation has remained subdued, but there are signs that wages are beginning to stir. Is it time to resurrect the Phillips Curve? What can we learn from history?

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