In the decades leading up to the global financial crisis (GFC), global trade grew roughly twice as fast as global output. But in the five years before 2016, trade mostly underperformed activity, prompting many to call the end of globalisation. We indulged in those discussions ourselves eighteen months ago. These calls, it seems, were premature.
The BoE is in a difficult spot. Lower trend growth and a weaker pound mean that if it doesn't hike rates, inflation could remain above target. But if it raises rates too fast, the economy could be hurt should downside risks materialise.
2017 looks set to mark the first year of an emerging market (EM) growth pick-up after six years of successive slowdowns. The growth acceleration is not only driven by the high-profile recoveries of Russia and Brazil, but comprises about 70% of the EM universe. So what could lie in store for EM in both the short and medium term?
2017 marks a number of financial anniversaries; the 1987 stockmarket crash, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and the beginning of the global financial crisis. As we haven’t really experienced an extreme boom or crisis recently, looking back will be a refresher as to what could occur, but also provide a wider perspective on investment returns. Nothing is as evocative of the past as its music, so we accompany our look back with a soundtrack of those hits we think have withstood the test of time, and those hits that we would rather forget.