Growth

Growth

Economics

Leviathan to the rescue—gauging China’s fiscal space

Just as Hobbes’ Leviathan saves the people from the horrors of constant struggle and chaos, we ask whether the Chinese state can save the people from a hard landing.

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Economics

We don't need no education

In 1979, Pink Floyd cried "Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!”. Ironically, this marked a turning point. The contribution to US wage growth from educational attainment appears to have peaked since the early 80s. This is just another brick in the wall in our argument of weaker US trend growth.

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Economics

Three myths about China’s growth slowdown

We are fast approaching the Chinese leadership reshuffle in late 2017. Attention could turn from the current period of relative calm and stability to the medium-term challenges lying ahead. In this context, we are likely to encounter three myths about China’s growth slowdown.

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Economics

Escape velocity?

Are we moving away from secular stagnation and towards normalization?

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Economics

Could the US Fed be Trump's greatest obstacle?

President Trump will try to talk markets, countries and companies into supporting his policy agenda, but he might find that the Fed turns out to be the greatest obstacle to his goal of rapid US growth.

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Macrobites

7 questions for ‘17

In my last post I reflected on the year that we’ve had and how it sets us up for the coming year. To keep us focused, we decided that it would be appropriate to distil our outlook for 2017 into seven key questions that we’ve asking ourselves this year...

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Economics

Cashless in Calcutta

The consensus remains bullish on India even after, or perhaps because of, recent currency reforms. We beg to differ. While Modi’s reform efforts have been impressive, only rivalled by Mexico following the global financial crisis, India still faces significant cyclical headwinds.

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