Europe

Macrobites

What policy challenges could move markets?

The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve all tightened monetary policy in 2017. Should investors be prepared for more of the same next year?

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Strategy

What's not to like?

It’s easy to build a buy case for European equities at the moment. The economy is booming, earnings are growing, politics look as stable as they have been for years and the European stock markets have lagged behind for so long that surely it’s time for some catch up? But perhaps constructing this buy case is a bit too easy?

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Macrobites

The year of politics is not quite over…

Last week, in one of our daily morning team meetings (when all the economists, strategists and fund managers gather round to exchange market-relevant news and views), each and every one of the contributions was about politics; including Brexit, Germany, Italy, Catalonia, the Netherlands, the US and Japan.

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Macrobites

Splinter is coming

While the UK prepares to break away from the EU, the voting age population is evolving. When the transition concludes, younger people’s views could be significantly under-represented. Adjusting for this could lead to some very different conclusions.

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Economics

The Brexit vote: one year on…

A week is a long time in politics, as Harold Wilson famously said. So one can only imagine what he would have made of the past year in which the UK has voted for Brexit, changed Prime Minister, triggered Article 50 and held a general election. And while the political saga has been going on, the effects on the UK economy are only just starting to appear.

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Economics

Does the EU have any teeth?

We look at the ways the EU can affect policies in member states ranging from diplomatic suasion to legal challenges and financial penalties, or changes to the EU budget, in the context of controversial laws passed recently in Poland.

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Economics

Draghiing it out

Now that the French Presidential elections are out of the way and investors are less concerned about euro area political risks, focus has turned to the next major ‘event’ - what is the ECB is going to do?

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