Europe

Macrobites

The year of politics is not quite over…

Last week, in one of our daily morning team meetings (when all the economists, strategists and fund managers gather round to exchange market-relevant news and views), each and every one of the contributions was about politics; including Brexit, Germany, Italy, Catalonia, the Netherlands, the US and Japan.

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Macrobites

Splinter is coming

While the UK prepares to break away from the EU, the voting age population is evolving. When the transition concludes, younger people’s views could be significantly under-represented. Adjusting for this could lead to some very different conclusions.

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Economics

The Brexit vote: one year on…

A week is a long time in politics, as Harold Wilson famously said. So one can only imagine what he would have made of the past year in which the UK has voted for Brexit, changed Prime Minister, triggered Article 50 and held a general election. And while the political saga has been going on, the effects on the UK economy are only just starting to appear.

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Economics

Does the EU have any teeth?

We look at the ways the EU can affect policies in member states ranging from diplomatic suasion to legal challenges and financial penalties, or changes to the EU budget, in the context of controversial laws passed recently in Poland.

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Economics

Draghiing it out

Now that the French Presidential elections are out of the way and investors are less concerned about euro area political risks, focus has turned to the next major ‘event’ - what is the ECB is going to do?

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Strategy

Could a Swiss holiday become less expensive?

Some of the clouds over Europe’s political landscape have disappeared after the French presidential election resulted in a market-friendly outcome. So has the Swiss franc now lost its value as a Eurozone malaise hedge, or are there other reasons to hold the currency?

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Strategy

Waiting for the ‘fat pitch’

A great advantage in managing money is having the ability to wait: avoiding a situation where you have to invest. This means you can pass on an investment idea simply because it doesn’t look interesting enough and wait for truly great opportunities. American baseball fans call this “waiting for the fat pitch”.

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