Europe

Macrobites

A shift to the right?

The rise of populism is driving a new political paradigm. But what does this mean for markets? Could more volatility and higher risk premia across asset classes be round the corner?

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Economics

Only 240 days to go….

After a tricky month for Prime Minister Theresa May, Parliament is in recess and the clock is ticking away for a Brexit deal. What sort of deal might the UK get, and what should we be looking out for?

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Strategy

Turkey under the grill

The temperature's roasting and the Turkish economy is under the spotlight. With President Erdoğan fighting financial markets, the contagion is spreading fast. So which parts are overdone and are there any tempting morsels worth trying? Here are our latest thoughts from Bloomberg TV. 

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Economics

Euro sitting duck

With the European Central Bank spelling out monetary policy for the next eighteen months, they could be a victim of developments elsewhere. Against a backdrop of slowing Eurozone growth and lacklustre inflation, the US seems likely to hike several times and increase Treasury supply by over $1 trillion, potentially tightening global credit conditions significantly and leaving Europe exposed. 

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Portfolio Thinking

UK - The inflation nation?

Unlike their US or Eurozone counterparts, UK pension funds will readily pay quite a premium for inflation protection. However, that premium is relatively unattractive for multi-asset investors, who we think can find better ways to manage UK and global inflation risks.

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Strategy

The euro rides the wave

Many 2017 outlooks included the sentence "in a strong US dollar environment..." Expectations for the US dollar immediately after the election of President Donald Trump were elevated, while the euro continued to face headwinds. As often happens with forecasts, it couldn't have been more wrong. So what's next?

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Macrobites

What policy challenges could move markets?

The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve all tightened monetary policy in 2017. Should investors be prepared for more of the same next year?

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