A week is a long time in politics, as Harold Wilson famously said. So one can only imagine what he would have made of the past year in which the UK has voted for Brexit, changed Prime Minister, triggered Article 50 and held a general election. And while the political saga has been going on, the effects on the UK economy are only just starting to appear.
Some of the clouds over Europe’s political landscape have disappeared after the French presidential election resulted in a market-friendly outcome. So has the Swiss franc now lost its value as a Eurozone malaise hedge, or are there other reasons to hold the currency?
A great advantage in managing money is having the ability to wait: avoiding a situation where you have to invest. This means you can pass on an investment idea simply because it doesn’t look interesting enough and wait for truly great opportunities. American baseball fans call this “waiting for the fat pitch”.
First it was Cristiano Ronaldo at the Euros, now it is Salvador Sobral at Eurovision. Portugal sits proudly on top of the sporting and cultural pile in Europe. Less obvious victories have been apparent in the rapid improvement in its fiscal arithmetic, and the significant outperformance of its bond market.
In the first of our quarterly quick-fire questions, we have Tim in the hot seat! Tim discusses President Trump’s policies, worries around protectionism and the latest Fed hike. He also considers market expectations for European Central Bank tapering, where a regime change looks to be on the horizon…