Emerging Markets

Economics

Bubble trouble in China? Of houses and hard landings

This is the third in a series of blogs that looks at the risks of a Chinese hard landing. In the first we argued that China still has important defences in the form of fiscal space. In the second, we discussed why the odds of financial crisis are not that high. In this blog, we ask whether China sits on a property bubble, which tend to end in violent and drawn-out recessions.

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Economics

Gaming Saudi oil production

OPEC members have a long history of breaching production quotas, which contributes to scepticism about current cuts. Game theory explains why this pattern persists and also why the Saudis often act, as cartel leader, if it becomes too widespread.

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Economics

Leviathan to the rescue—gauging China’s fiscal space

Just as Hobbes’ Leviathan saves the people from the horrors of constant struggle and chaos, we ask whether the Chinese state can save the people from a hard landing.

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Economics

Are Mexico’s fortunes finally turning?

Mexico's economy has faced no shortage of headwinds over the past few years. As a manufacturing hub, it suffered more than others from the post-2008 weakness in the global cycle. It was hit hard by the collapse in oil prices in 2014. And in 2016, it became a key target of President Trump’s campaign against trade and outsourcing. However, there are signs that the headwinds facing Mexico's economies could now be abating.

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Portfolio Thinking

Emerging market local currency debt in three charts

Are we starting to see the promise from emerging market local currency debt? Emerging market local currency debt has had strong returns year-to-date but we remain cautious on its future outlook. Here we look at three charts that give us an insight into this asset class.

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Strategy

Are Argentina's Messi days in the past?

Is it worth investing in a currency plagued by high inflation, with a history of continuous depreciation and numerous large devaluations?

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Economics

Rewriting the definition of ‘emerging markets’

The practice of grouping countries is here to stay, but the definition of ‘emerging markets’ should become more nuanced.

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