This is the third in a series of blogs that looks at the risks of a Chinese hard landing. In the first we argued that China still has important defences in the form of fiscal space. In the second, we discussed why the odds of financial crisis are not that high. In this blog, we ask whether China sits on a property bubble, which tend to end in violent and drawn-out recessions.
Just as Hobbes’ Leviathan saves the people from the horrors of constant struggle and chaos, we ask whether the Chinese state can save the people from a hard landing.
Mexico's economy has faced no shortage of headwinds over the past few years. As a manufacturing hub, it suffered more than others from the post-2008 weakness in the global cycle. It was hit hard by the collapse in oil prices in 2014. And in 2016, it became a key target of President Trump’s campaign against trade and outsourcing. However, there are signs that the headwinds facing Mexico's economies could now be abating.
Are we starting to see the promise from emerging market local currency debt? Emerging market local currency debt has had strong returns year-to-date but we remain cautious on its future outlook. Here we look at three charts that give us an insight into this asset class.