Donald Trump

Macrobites

A filibusted flush

The filibuster is an important procedural device in the US Senate that makes it significantly harder to break the gridlock between Republicans and Democrats. President Trump argues that the "very outdated filibuster must go". But what is it? Why is it important? And what are the investment implications of throwing it on the Congressional scrapheap?

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Strategy

I need a dollar

Going into 2017, the market consensus was one of a strong US dollar environment, with the expectation of the US engine firing on all cylinders, with support from fiscal policy, monetary policy and de-regulation. The engine has stuttered, the US dollar has been declining all year and not many US dollar bulls are left. We are taking stock.   

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Strategy

Trump today, Trump tomorrow?

Impeachment talk is nothing new in Washington. It’s difficult to think of any US President in recent times where some part of the political spectrum has not been calling for impeachment. Yet, US impeachment talk has gained unusual momentum in recent weeks, making it a scenario worth thinking through for investors. Here are nine questions and nine answers.

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Economics

Are Mexico’s fortunes finally turning?

Mexico's economy has faced no shortage of headwinds over the past few years. As a manufacturing hub, it suffered more than others from the post-2008 weakness in the global cycle. It was hit hard by the collapse in oil prices in 2014. And in 2016, it became a key target of President Trump’s campaign against trade and outsourcing. However, there are signs that the headwinds facing Mexico's economies could now be abating.

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Strategy

Populist allocation

The French have elected an establishment President - surely this marks the end of road of the Political Paradigm? Far from it! More than 45% of French voters cast their ballot for a populist in the first round, more than ever before. In part 3 of this blog series I look at how the theme impacts financial markets and asset prices.

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Macrobites

The cajoler-in-chief

President Trump's approval ratings after his first 100 days in office make for grim reading. As markets question the ability of the White House to get its own way, we've seen a significant retracement in the "Trump trade" in both equities and fixed income. The President needs to become the cajoler, not just the commander, in chief to revive hopes of a large fiscal stimulus.

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Strategy

Should investors be worried about US-China relations?

As I wrote in my latest client update, for much of the last century the United States has enjoyed a longstanding position of dominance within the world political system. However, we believe we are entering a new political paradigm and are moving towards a ‘multi-polar’ world, one where the US is joined at the top by other powers such as China. The US must find a way to share its global power, or risk falling into what is known as a ‘Thucydides Trap’. At present, President Trump is likely to continue to talk tough on trade but we do not think it will lead to a trade war, nor would this be in his interest. In recognising both the changing political as well as economic landscape, we believe investors can better inform their investment outlook.

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