Donald Trump

Economics

US-Sino relations - shifting grounds

How does the potential trade war look from China’s angle? Although a full-blown trade war between the US and China is not our base case, there is still a lot to consider. The macro impact currently appears to be very manageable, although even if it all blows over, we observe a tectonic shift in the US-Sino relationship.

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Economics

Can you win a trade war?

'War on trade' is the topic of the moment, but in my view it is an element of a wider political trend. Here's a whistle-stop tour of what's happened thus far. I'll then hand over to Erik in a future post to cover things from China's angle.

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Strategy

Tariffs and Trump-induced turmoil

Shifting market narratives suggest the latest squall may not have passed, even though the solid underpinning of the global economy is likely to prevail in the coming months.

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Strategy

Peak Bad Trump?

The pendulum has now swung in favour of Bad Trump but has it reached its peak?

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Economics

NAFTA la vista, baby

US President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from NAFTA. Is the US protectionist pivot promised during the election campaign finally arriving?

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Macrobites

Politics, policy and (market) peaks

While our forecasts for 2018 follow a similar trajectory to 2017, a healthy dose of potential risk lurks in the shadows. For a different take on the Asset Allocation team’s outlook for next year, here’s an insight into the regular debate at our team meetings in the first of a three-part series focusing on our discussions on each of the three Ps of politics, policy and (market) peaks.

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Economics

Trump's gamble with the US economy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the consequences of the potential US fiscal stimulus for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.

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