The filibuster is an important procedural device in the US Senate that makes it significantly harder to break the gridlock between Republicans and Democrats. President Trump argues that the "very outdated filibuster must go". But what is it? Why is it important? And what are the investment implications of throwing it on the Congressional scrapheap?
Going into 2017, the market consensus was one of a strong US dollar environment, with the expectation of the US engine firing on all cylinders, with support from fiscal policy, monetary policy and de-regulation. The engine has stuttered, the US dollar has been declining all year and not many US dollar bulls are left. We are taking stock.
Impeachment talk is nothing new in Washington. It’s difficult to think of any US President in recent times where some part of the political spectrum has not been calling for impeachment. Yet, US impeachment talk has gained unusual momentum in recent weeks, making it a scenario worth thinking through for investors. Here are nine questions and nine answers.
Mexico's economy has faced no shortage of headwinds over the past few years. As a manufacturing hub, it suffered more than others from the post-2008 weakness in the global cycle. It was hit hard by the collapse in oil prices in 2014. And in 2016, it became a key target of President Trump’s campaign against trade and outsourcing. However, there are signs that the headwinds facing Mexico's economies could now be abating.
The French have elected an establishment President - surely this marks the end of road of the Political Paradigm? Far from it! More than 45% of French voters cast their ballot for a populist in the first round, more than ever before. In part 3 of this blog series I look at how the theme impacts financial markets and asset prices.
President Trump's approval ratings after his first 100 days in office make for grim reading. As markets question the ability of the White House to get its own way, we've seen a significant retracement in the "Trump trade" in both equities and fixed income. The President needs to become the cajoler, not just the commander, in chief to revive hopes of a large fiscal stimulus.