Developed Markets

Macrobites

Stocking up for Christmas

With global industrial confidence jumping to a two-year high in October, the recovery in global manufacturing, heralded by our inventory analysis in the spring, appears to be underway.

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Strategy

Trump wins - what's on the cards?

In a largely unexpected result, the US electorate has voted for Donald Trump to become the next President of the United States. While this heralds a significant period of uncertainty, there are the signposts we can keep an eye on to help navigate these uncertain times.

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Economics

Higher public investment – a universal cure for low growth?

Can higher public spending ease growth woes in all countries and double-charge monetary easing? As it always turns out when you talk about economics: it depends.

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Economics

Uncertainty Principle

The recent surge in economic and political uncertainty is likely to push the UK into recession and poses downside risks to European and US growth.

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Strategy

Where's the upside?

Seven years into this bull market, how is it that equities continue to rally? I share investors' scepticism, but not because of the duration of the bull market or the size of the rally. I struggle to find reasons to be bullish on the two fundamental drivers of equities: earnings and valuations.

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Economics

Kickstart the Kitkat machine

Global manufacturing inventories are falling for the first time in two years. This suggests the industrial cycle could be bottoming out.

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Economics

The Productivity Conundrum

Productivity determines our living standards and real wages. While the universal translator isn't invented until the 22nd Century (according to Star Trek), we are living in a more technologically advanced, "freemium" world which suggests that inflation is probably overestimated by ½%.

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