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Economics

Profits of doom

US corporate profits have been under pressure. While the sector poses the main danger to the current economic expansion, we think it is premature to worry about a corporate retrenchment plunging the economy into recession.

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Strategy

Trump (Part II) - The Totally Flexible Man

Let’s assume Trump wins or at least the market re-prices his chances of winning. What would a President Trump do and how would asset prices respond? It’s a question worth asking, but not an easy question to answer given that Trump describes himself as ‘totally flexible on very, very many issues’.

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Economics

The cost of being tempted by an all-you-can-eat-buffet

The eternal truth in financial crises is that debt is the heart of the problem. Without debt, there is no leverage and no forced selling. Warning lights are now flashing across emerging markets. Timing the next debt crisis is extraordinarily difficult, but we know where to look.

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