Currency

Strategy

The euro rides the wave

Many 2017 outlooks included the sentence "in a strong US dollar environment..." Expectations for the US dollar immediately after the election of President Donald Trump were elevated, while the euro continued to face headwinds. As often happens with forecasts, it couldn't have been more wrong. So what's next?

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Macrobites

Bitcoin: The rise of a new currency?

Bitcoin was the talk of the town in the last few months of 2017, rising from relative obscurity to headline news as it rocketed in value. But can it overcome hurdles to cross over from a speculative asset to a mainstream currency?

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Strategy

Up the stairs, down the elevator

During times of uncertainty investors tend to gravitate toward the Japanese yen. This makes the yen a good tail hedge within a portfolio context, as the yen will appreciate when you need it the most.

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Strategy

Off the record, on the QT, and very hush-hush

Quantitative easing is a bit of a puzzle. It doesn't work in theory, but appears to have worked well in practice. Should we be worried as that process now edges into reverse with the advent of 'quantitative tightening'?

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Economics

Western propaganda?

Chinese GDP statistics are notoriously unreliable at signalling turning points, so I decided to test the temperature on the ground with a macro tour in Beijing. A couple of days of meetings with policymakers, academics and investors left me comforted and alarmed in equal measure.

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Strategy

I need a dollar

Going into 2017, the market consensus was one of a strong US dollar environment, with the expectation of the US engine firing on all cylinders, with support from fiscal policy, monetary policy and de-regulation. The engine has stuttered, the US dollar has been declining all year and not many US dollar bulls are left. We are taking stock.   

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Strategy

Could a Swiss holiday become less expensive?

Some of the clouds over Europe’s political landscape have disappeared after the French presidential election resulted in a market-friendly outcome. So has the Swiss franc now lost its value as a Eurozone malaise hedge, or are there other reasons to hold the currency?

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