Credit

Strategy

Waiting for the ‘fat pitch’

A great advantage in managing money is having the ability to wait: avoiding a situation where you have to invest. This means you can pass on an investment idea simply because it doesn’t look interesting enough and wait for truly great opportunities. American baseball fans call this “waiting for the fat pitch”.

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Economics

Yo-yo clubs

Leicester city’s rise and fall over the past year mirrors that of financial risk premiums. Fundamentals are probably average but performance can oscillate wildly. The Fed wants to see monetary conditions tighten: this can come through a stronger dollar, higher risk-free rates or increased risk premiums.

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Macrobites

Oils well that ends well

US corporate bad loans appear to have peaked, suggesting limited ‘spillover’ from the oil sector to the broader economy. This should keep banks lending, the economy growing and the Fed hiking.

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Strategy

A postcard from Beijing

Having visited China at least once a year over the last 10 years, two weeks ago I was back in Beijing, swapping my Bloomberg screen for a ‘real world’ view of the world’s second largest economy. Meeting with friends, academics, investors and policymakers, here’s my take on what I saw and heard.

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Economics

Money talks

Emerging market bank credit availability improved last quarter, despite continued problems with non-performing loans. Instead, this was offset by stronger funding conditions as western central banks printed more money. As Stevie V told us 27 years ago, “Money talks, mmm mmm, money talks”.

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