The US corporate credit cycle seems to have turned with rising bad loans leading to banks tightening corporate credit conditions. This can be self-reinforcing. So I send a 'yellow card' warning to investors that we're 70 minutes into the match and we could see a recession in 2018.
The eternal truth in financial crises is that debt is the heart of the problem. Without debt, there is no leverage and no forced selling. Warning lights are now flashing across emerging markets. Timing the next debt crisis is extraordinarily difficult, but we know where to look.