Contagion

Macrobites

Oils well that ends well

US corporate bad loans appear to have peaked, suggesting limited ‘spillover’ from the oil sector to the broader economy. This should keep banks lending, the economy growing and the Fed hiking.

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Macrobites

A wave of populism

Following the surprise Brexit vote and election of Trump, what is in store for Europe? Here are my highlights from the Outlook for Europe Masterclass with Robert Peston on AssetTV.

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Macrobites

Pizza, piazzas and political turmoil?

I’ve had Italy in my sights for a long time. Beautiful lakes, stunning food…and oh, some potential political turmoil. So before I go off to enjoy the delights of Lake Garda, I’ll impart my latest thoughts on political developments in Italy.

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Economics

Yellow card - are we heading for a US recession in 2018?

The US corporate credit cycle seems to have turned with rising bad loans leading to banks tightening corporate credit conditions. This can be self-reinforcing. So I send a 'yellow card' warning to investors that we're 70 minutes into the match and we could see a recession in 2018.

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Economics

The cost of being tempted by an all-you-can-eat-buffet

The eternal truth in financial crises is that debt is the heart of the problem. Without debt, there is no leverage and no forced selling. Warning lights are now flashing across emerging markets. Timing the next debt crisis is extraordinarily difficult, but we know where to look.

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