Contagion

Macrobites

Italy: too big to fail, too big to bail

 

Political risk is back with a vengeance in Italy. As the third largest global issuer of government bonds after the US and Japan, the country is too big to be allowed to fail without severe contagion to the global financial system. However, it is also too big to bail out comfortably using tried and tested mechanisms.

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Macrobites

The year of politics is not quite over…

Last week, in one of our daily morning team meetings (when all the economists, strategists and fund managers gather round to exchange market-relevant news and views), each and every one of the contributions was about politics; including Brexit, Germany, Italy, Catalonia, the Netherlands, the US and Japan.

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Macrobites

Oils well that ends well

US corporate bad loans appear to have peaked, suggesting limited ‘spillover’ from the oil sector to the broader economy. This should keep banks lending, the economy growing and the Fed hiking.

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Macrobites

A wave of populism

Following the surprise Brexit vote and election of Trump, what is in store for Europe? Here are my highlights from the Outlook for Europe Masterclass with Robert Peston on AssetTV.

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