Central banks

Macrobites

What policy challenges could move markets?

The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve all tightened monetary policy in 2017. Should investors be prepared for more of the same next year?

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Strategy

Twin peaks: the law of averages and the zero lower bound

In pricing fixed income securities, a lot hangs on the difference between the mean, median and mode. Markets reflect a probability-weighted average of potential outcomes (i.e. the mean); policymakers typically focus on the single most-likely outcome (i.e. the mode). Thinking carefully about the difference has important implications for how we view interest rate risks.

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Strategy

Up the stairs, down the elevator

During times of uncertainty investors tend to gravitate toward the Japanese yen. This makes the yen a good tail hedge within a portfolio context, as the yen will appreciate when you need it the most.

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Economics

Mario's Marvellous Medicine

With the Fed and ECB unwinding QE, what happens when we come off the meds? There are signs that the patient (the economy) has healed, suggesting limited withdrawal effects. While addiction and placebo effects could still increase risk premia, low inflation reduces the risk of going ‘cold turkey’.

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Strategy

Quantitative easing – no big deal for equities?

How much of where equities are today has come from quantitative easing (QE)? For a long time the answer to this question has not really been that important to equity investors. But now, with central banks moving towards shrinking their balance sheets, it’s a question equity investors can no longer ignore. My view is that QE may not have contributed much to the equity rally and therefore its unwinding may not be a major concern either.

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Economics

Hurricane Harvey

As the floodwaters recede from Hurricane Harvey and another storm is brewing, we attempt to assess the impact of natural disasters on the US economy.

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Economics

Champions League clique

The rise of Chelsea and Man City shows that it takes a lot of money to break into the Champions League elite, but once you're there, it creates a virtuous circle. The same is true for inflation. There is a self-reinforcing loop of high inflation expectations, wages and prices. But the 2014 oil shock looks to have knocked the US and Japan out. Consumers' inflation expectations remain stubbornly low.

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