Central banks

Economics

Is Carney getting cold feet about hiking?

Earlier this year, the UK economy appeared to be warming up nicely, and a May rate hike was on the cards. But has March’s cold snap changed all this?

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Economics

Where are the inflation hawks?

US core inflation is on the verge of returning to target, but there are widespread expectations that it will stabilise there over the next few years. How confident should investors be in this outlook?

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Strategy

Land of slope and glory

The US yield curve has consistently flattened since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy several years ago. History strongly suggests that this is an entirely normal market reaction to a rate hiking cycle. If short-term interest rates continue to rise at the pace we expect, we could well be looking at an inverted curve by the middle of 2019.

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Strategy

What's 20 trillion yen between friends?

The Bank of Japan is trying to convince the market that there is “nothing to see here” despite a sharp drop in its asset purchase flow from ¥80 trillion to ¥60 trillion per annum. Add this to the list of reasons to worry about potential yen appreciation, but don’t think of it as a leading concern for global rates or risk assets.

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Strategy

The euro rides the wave

Many 2017 outlooks included the sentence "in a strong US dollar environment..." Expectations for the US dollar immediately after the election of President Donald Trump were elevated, while the euro continued to face headwinds. As often happens with forecasts, it couldn't have been more wrong. So what's next?

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Macrobites

Bitcoin: The rise of a new currency?

Bitcoin was the talk of the town in the last few months of 2017, rising from relative obscurity to headline news as it rocketed in value. But can it overcome hurdles to cross over from a speculative asset to a mainstream currency?

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Macrobites

Looking for a game changer

Following the recent release of our CIO Investment Outlook from Anton Eser, I’m proud to introduce Anton’s thought-provoking and non-consensus call. To round off our look at the New Year, should investors be wary of a severe market correction in 2018?

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