Bubble

Strategy

The Butterfly Effect

I’m passionate about macro investing. As long as the markets are open, I don’t think about much else. Some people call it passion, others call it addiction.

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Strategy

Why the market wobble may be a Taper Tantrum 2.0

We are inclined to lean against the recent sell-off, which appears to be driven by excessive investor optimism and positioning.

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Strategy

What can the art market teach us about investments?

It turns out, quite a lot. The ability of real assets to retain their inflation-adjusted value over time is hugely valuable. Relatively small differentials in annual returns can compound up into huge differences in outcomes over long periods of time. However, knowing whether an asset is in a bubble comes down to a debate about appropriate discount rates.

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Strategy

Worryingly bullish

It’s a new year, but some things haven’t changed. The "fear of missing out" market continues. However, with the rally come worryingly bullish sentiment indicators. One of our favourites is flashing red for the first time since 2010.

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Strategy

It’s difficult at the top

Markets are grinding higher and many investors are looking to call the top of the market cycle. In this light we ask ourselves what causes bubbles and more importantly how do we spot them? Over time I have collected a range of indicators that seek to have some predictive value in spotting bubbles emerging. I modestly call this the Heiligenberg Index.

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Economics

Owner pre-occupied?

When I first became an economist (don’t ask how many years ago!), the question I was most regularly asked by friends and family was: "when is a good time to buy a house?"  

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Economics

Bubble trouble in China? Of houses and hard landings

This is the third in a series of blogs that looks at the risks of a Chinese hard landing. In the first we argued that China still has important defences in the form of fiscal space. In the second, we discussed why the odds of financial crisis are not that high. In this blog, we ask whether China sits on a property bubble, which tend to end in violent and drawn-out recessions.

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