Bubble

Strategy

It’s difficult at the top

Markets are grinding higher and many investors are looking to call the top of the market cycle. In this light we ask ourselves what causes bubbles and more importantly how do we spot them? Over time I have collected a range of indicators that seek to have some predictive value in spotting bubbles emerging. I modestly call this the Heiligenberg Index.

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Economics

Owner pre-occupied?

When I first became an economist (don’t ask how many years ago!), the question I was most regularly asked by friends and family was: "when is a good time to buy a house?"  

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Economics

Bubble trouble in China? Of houses and hard landings

This is the third in a series of blogs that looks at the risks of a Chinese hard landing. In the first we argued that China still has important defences in the form of fiscal space. In the second, we discussed why the odds of financial crisis are not that high. In this blog, we ask whether China sits on a property bubble, which tend to end in violent and drawn-out recessions.

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Strategy

Focus on the horse, not the car

Whilst it can be enticing to focus on emerging technologies, it’s perhaps more important for investors to focus on the disrupted incumbents left in their wake.

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Economics

Three myths about China’s growth slowdown

We are fast approaching the Chinese leadership reshuffle in late 2017. Attention could turn from the current period of relative calm and stability to the medium-term challenges lying ahead. In this context, we are likely to encounter three myths about China’s growth slowdown.

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Economics

Wild horses - A look at Chinese capital outflows

The balance of payments data reading for Q3 shows that capital outflows from China accelerated again. Like wild horses, capital outflows can develop a dynamic of their own. So what are the drivers? Furthermore, is there already evidence of panic and how might policymakers react?

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Macrobites

Three things that (could) go bump in the markets

While markets have been eerily calm, it’s easy to forget that we’ve already had a few shocks this year. With potentially more to come, investors could still be easily spooked this Halloween.

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