Bubble

Economics

Bubble trouble in China? Of houses and hard landings

This is the third in a series of blogs that looks at the risks of a Chinese hard landing. In the first we argued that China still has important defences in the form of fiscal space. In the second, we discussed why the odds of financial crisis are not that high. In this blog, we ask whether China sits on a property bubble, which tend to end in violent and drawn-out recessions.

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Strategy

Focus on the horse, not the car

Whilst it can be enticing to focus on emerging technologies, it’s perhaps more important for investors to focus on the disrupted incumbents left in their wake.

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Economics

Three myths about China’s growth slowdown

We are fast approaching the Chinese leadership reshuffle in late 2017. Attention could turn from the current period of relative calm and stability to the medium-term challenges lying ahead. In this context, we are likely to encounter three myths about China’s growth slowdown.

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Economics

Wild horses - A look at Chinese capital outflows

The balance of payments data reading for Q3 shows that capital outflows from China accelerated again. Like wild horses, capital outflows can develop a dynamic of their own. So what are the drivers? Furthermore, is there already evidence of panic and how might policymakers react?

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Macrobites

Three things that (could) go bump in the markets

While markets have been eerily calm, it’s easy to forget that we’ve already had a few shocks this year. With potentially more to come, investors could still be easily spooked this Halloween.

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Strategy

Is the bull market coming to an end?

Six years into a bull market and with many equity indices at all-time highs it is understandable that investors are nervous about when the party will end. Unfortunately (or fortunately) predicting the end of a bull market is not as easy as looking at a calendar.

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Strategy

The bubble implodes

At the time of writing (9 July) the Shanghai Composite lost 33% from its 12 June high, half of stocks trading has been suspended and attempts to stem the tide of selling have so far made little difference...

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