Behavioural finance

Portfolio Thinking

All about that base

When making decisions, data on similar past decisions and their outcomes provide a useful starting point as a ‘base rate’. Too often though people ignore them or give them too little weight. Base rates of the historic performance of active fund managers provide an insight into the potential benefits and costs of choosing them in different asset classes.

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Portfolio Thinking

Sell the rumour, buy the fact

With Philippe Coutinho and Alexis Sanchez staying at their clubs, the most recent football transfer window offers a great example of the availability bias at work and a counter example to the common investment adage “buy the rumour, sell the fact”.

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Splinter is coming

While the UK prepares to break away from the EU, the voting age population is evolving. When the transition concludes, younger people’s views could be significantly under-represented. Adjusting for this could lead to some very different conclusions.

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