Bear market

Strategy

I need a dollar

Going into 2017, the market consensus was one of a strong US dollar environment, with the expectation of the US engine firing on all cylinders, with support from fiscal policy, monetary policy and de-regulation. The engine has stuttered, the US dollar has been declining all year and not many US dollar bulls are left. We are taking stock.   

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Strategy

Grey is the new black (or white, or beige)

As our attentions turn to outlooks for the year ahead, it's best to avoid messages from perma-bears, perma-bulls and the hopelessly vague. However, clairvoyance is not a strategy. Instead we should try to favour sound analysis and be more willing to think (and talk) in probabilistic terms, or as I like to call it, shades of grey.

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Strategy

Where's the upside?

Seven years into this bull market, how is it that equities continue to rally? I share investors' scepticism, but not because of the duration of the bull market or the size of the rally. I struggle to find reasons to be bullish on the two fundamental drivers of equities: earnings and valuations.

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Macrobites

Are there sharks in the water?

Some of the readers of Macro Matters have asked me whether I had perhaps written the last one, “The good and bad of low growth”, from a remote island during one of my shark diving trips, completely separated from markets, as I didn’t explicitly comment on all major events and headlines.

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