Asia

Economics

Another dispassionate look at India

They say that idealists don’t care about the short run, while cynics don’t care about the long run. We like to think of ourselves as realists who believe that what you do in the short run determines the long run. This is how we look at India.

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Economics

Cashless in Calcutta

The consensus remains bullish on India even after, or perhaps because of, recent currency reforms. We beg to differ. While Modi’s reform efforts have been impressive, only rivalled by Mexico following the global financial crisis, India still faces significant cyclical headwinds.

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Strategy

Anything you can do, I can do better

When the global financial crisis broke, central banks in the West copied from the Japanese playbook and introduced quantitative easing to boost growth and inflation. Now it is Japan's turn to borrow from the West with NIRP (negative interest rate policy) - are they running out of options?

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Macrobites

The yuan and only

The significance of the IMF’s decision on including the RMB in the SDR is in the detail. The headline should not be a surprise to anyone, but the reshuffle of the SDR weights is quite telling.

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Strategy

The bubble implodes

At the time of writing (9 July) the Shanghai Composite lost 33% from its 12 June high, half of stocks trading has been suspended and attempts to stem the tide of selling have so far made little difference...

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Strategy

Top 5 highlights from my trip to China

Having spent a week in China rubbing shoulders with PM’s, brokers, policy makers and anyone else I could get a meeting with, I found myself surprised by how imminent some risks in China were. In light of this, here are my top 5 things to keep an eye on in the coming months

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