In a raging bull market there is always the temptation to buy the laggards in the hope of juicy returns from a 'catch-up' trade. Unfortunately, all too often you end up in a value trap instead: there’s a reason the stock has lagged and that reason often turns out to be annoyingly persistent. There’s no doubt that Mexico meets the laggard definition. But I would argue that there’s a strong case it could actually be a catch-up story.
President Trump's approval ratings after his first 100 days in office make for grim reading. As markets question the ability of the White House to get its own way, we've seen a significant retracement in the "Trump trade" in both equities and fixed income. The President needs to become the cajoler, not just the commander, in chief to revive hopes of a large fiscal stimulus.
Investors are constantly trying to judge the so-called “reaction function” of the Federal Reserve to understand the likely path for monetary policy. This understanding could get turned on its head in the next twelve months if Janet Yellen is replaced by Professor John B Taylor of Stanford University.
In a largely unexpected result, the US electorate has voted for Donald Trump to become the next President of the United States. While this heralds a significant period of uncertainty, there are the signposts we can keep an eye on to help navigate these uncertain times.
Monetary policymakers are often described as heading into “uncharted territory”. The latest example is the Bank of Japan’s decision to introduce a target for ten-year yields. You won’t find a precedent of this policy in recent history. But the territory is not totally uncharted: we saw something very similar in the USA roughly seventy years ago.