Americas

Economics

Argentina: in economic quicksand?

Last year's market darling, Argentina, now finds itself in a vicious cycle of a weakening currency, rate hikes, lower growth and higher debt. So how can the country avoid a liquidity crisis turning into a full-blown crisis?

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Strategy

Horchata! A case for Mexican assets

In a raging bull market there is always the temptation to buy the laggards in the hope of juicy returns from a 'catch-up' trade. Unfortunately, all too often you end up in a value trap instead: there’s a reason the stock has lagged and that reason often turns out to be annoyingly persistent. There’s no doubt that Mexico meets the laggard definition. But I would argue that there’s a strong case it could actually be a catch-up story.

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Macrobites

The cajoler-in-chief

President Trump's approval ratings after his first 100 days in office make for grim reading. As markets question the ability of the White House to get its own way, we've seen a significant retracement in the "Trump trade" in both equities and fixed income. The President needs to become the cajoler, not just the commander, in chief to revive hopes of a large fiscal stimulus.

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Strategy

Are Argentina's Messi days in the past?

Is it worth investing in a currency plagued by high inflation, with a history of continuous depreciation and numerous large devaluations?

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Strategy

Will Taylor rule?

Investors are constantly trying to judge the so-called “reaction function” of the Federal Reserve to understand the likely path for monetary policy. This understanding could get turned on its head in the next twelve months if Janet Yellen is replaced by Professor John B Taylor of Stanford University.

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Strategy

Trump wins - what's on the cards?

In a largely unexpected result, the US electorate has voted for Donald Trump to become the next President of the United States. While this heralds a significant period of uncertainty, there are the signposts we can keep an eye on to help navigate these uncertain times.

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Strategy

When the satnav’s broken, dust off your roadmap

Monetary policymakers are often described as heading into “uncharted territory”. The latest example is the Bank of Japan’s decision to introduce a target for ten-year yields. You won’t find a precedent of this policy in recent history. But the territory is not totally uncharted: we saw something very similar in the USA roughly seventy years ago.

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