Strategy

Do Italian BTPs* present an opportunity or a threat?

Five months is a long time in Italian politics. Back in June, we observed that Italy was too big to fail, but also too big to bail. We were also waiting for the almost inevitable clash with the European Commission over the budget. That has now arrived and we have started trading Italian risk in the new higher range for spreads.

* (Bubbling Tensions in Politics)

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Macrobites

The show must go on

How much negativity about leaving the European Union is priced into the current level of sterling?

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Economics

Profit warning

US profits are booming, but could be set to change radically. We believe that an earnings recession is almost inevitable in 2020, even if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can engineer a soft landing.

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Economics

Hoping not to get behind the curve...

How is Brexit impacting the Bank of England's reaction function? For my latest thoughts, here is a clip from CNBC.

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