Economics

Reshuffle kerfuffle

Last week brought a surprise twist in the outlook for the UK’s fiscal policy. Should we expect a radically different budget from the new chancellor? And what does that mean for UK asset prices?

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Strategy

The only certainty is uncertainty

Investors are accustomed to assessing risk, estimating the likelihood of potential outcomes and their impacts. But the coronavirus is a black swan, unpredictable and with an eventual outcome shrouded in uncertainty. I discussed this uncertainty during my recent Bloomberg appearance.

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Economics

Estimating and monitoring the economic impact of the coronavirus

High-frequency economic indicators suggest the Chinese economy has yet to recover from the coronavirus, supporting anecdotal evidence of extended factory closures. Depending on how quickly activity returns to normal, the Chinese economy could contract at a double-digit pace in the first quarter, pushing annual growth down to just 3%.

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Economics

The US economic diagnosis

The coronavirus has led to another round of economic uncertainty and a severe hit to GDP growth in China but, providing the containment efforts are successful, we see little impact on economies such as the US.

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