China: from the silent saviour to the slippery slope
Emerging markets are going through a 'Trump slump', leading many to ask "how much further it could go?" We expect China to slow down and see this as the major risk for emerging markets. The transmission mechanism is likely to be via the already shaky commodity markets.
Oil in particular has retraced all its progress since August, despite expectations for OPEC cuts at the end of the month. Without this support, we believe oil would be trading below the 'dangerous' $40 level where investors would normally consider it a major macro driver.
Over the last two years, China has silently supported the over-supplied oil market and saved it from a full-blown collapse as it grows its strategic reserves. But now, as Chinese credit growth goes into reverse and economic activity slows, it could provide the slippery slope for a further oil bust.