China is boosting growth through leverage. Since China already sports one of the highest debt levels worldwide, investors are rightly concerned about a financial crisis. We also see China on course for a financial crisis, but feel the crisis is still a few years away.
The eternal truth in financial crises is that debt is the heart of the problem. Without debt, there is no leverage and no forced selling. Warning lights are now flashing across emerging markets. Timing the next debt crisis is extraordinarily difficult, but we know where to look.