Economics

 

Economics

Goldilocks - will the porridge ever overheat?

We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?

Read more

Economics

A postcard from South Africa

The outlook for the South African economy and assets remains uncertain. Adding to the uncertainty are the upcoming elections of ANC leadership which could bring a range of outcomes for the market.

Read more

Economics

Trump's gamble with the US economy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the consequences of the potential US fiscal stimulus for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.

Read more

Economics

Mario's Marvellous Medicine

With the Fed and ECB unwinding QE, what happens when we come off the meds? There are signs that the patient (the economy) has healed, suggesting limited withdrawal effects. While addiction and placebo effects could still increase risk premia, low inflation reduces the risk of going ‘cold turkey’.

Read more

Economics

Why did the BoE just hike? What happens next?

The BoE is in a difficult spot. Lower trend growth and a weaker pound mean that if it doesn't hike rates, inflation could remain above target. But if it raises rates too fast, the economy could be hurt should downside risks materialise.

Read more

Economics

Why is US wage inflation still subdued?

US wage inflation remains subdued. Many believe this is due to workers' fears about automation and offshoring. Yet US consumers believe jobs are 'easy to get' and companies struggle to find labour. This contrasts with Germany in 2004 when the EU expanded eastwards. So second-round effects from low oil prices and ageing demographics appear more plausible explanations.

 

Read more

Economics

Back to the 1960s

US core inflation has remained subdued, but there are signs that wages are beginning to stir. Is it time to resurrect the Phillips Curve? What can we learn from history?

Read more

All posts: 98

Page No: 1

NoOfPages: 14

All posts: /categories/economics/?page=2