I'm not sure exactly why Queen's "Don't stop me now" has been stuck in my head...something to do with football and wishing not to get knocked out maybe...we were having such a good time! Anyway, as I say in this Sky News interview on the Ian King Show, only a big shock would stop the Bank of England from hiking in August. I also discuss the merits of the new monthly GDP data.
For decades, demographers were too pessimistic on life expectancy and had to revise up their forecasts. Are they now too optimistic? Recent data suggest that UK ‘death rates’ have stopped improving. If sustained, life expectancy projections would need to be revised down. This would have profound implications for government and pension finances.
Without adjustment on the home front, we believe that President Donald Trump's push to reduce the trade deficit is unlikely to improve the US trade balance, or boost domestic employment and growth. However, his outspoken approach and questioning of the prevailing trade system may be the very jolt that global trade negotiators need to update their thinking and move ahead with a constantly changing global economy and patterns of trade.
“We trust that the government will take all the appropriate actions” – Jean-Claude Trichet. Mario Draghi. That was the sign-off for the now infamous ECB letter sent to Silvio Berlusconi’s government during the height of the European sovereign debt crisis. Nearly seven years on, Italy has once again experienced financial market turmoil and the ECB this week will no doubt be asked many questions about the situation.