Economics

 

Economics

Argentina: in economic quicksand?

Last year's market darling, Argentina, now finds itself in a vicious cycle of a weakening currency, rate hikes, lower growth and higher debt. So how can the country avoid a liquidity crisis turning into a full-blown crisis?

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Economics

Could Brazil be next?

After Argentina and Turkey, could Brazil be the next emerging market (EM) that goes into crisis? These events are not linked – each of these countries currently has idiosyncratic weaknesses. In the case of Brazil, the fiscal deficit is in the spotlight, coupled with the presidential elections in October.

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Economics

A perfect recession indicator?

The US Senior Loan Officer Survey is signalling low recession risk, but how reliable is this indicator?

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Economics

The US economy: What could possibly go wrong?

A US recession in 2020 is our best estimate, but this forecast is far from a slam dunk. Could it arrive later? And what might this mean for equity markets?

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Economics

Unreactive function

Here’s my take on the latest UK GDP numbers, the economic outlook and what that means for the Bank of England’s reaction function on CNBC.

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Economics

Only 240 days to go….

After a tricky month for Prime Minister Theresa May, Parliament is in recess and the clock is ticking away for a Brexit deal. What sort of deal might the UK get, and what should we be looking out for?

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Economics

US thrift – saving grace?

US households have apparently been saving far more than we realised. Could this affect how much longer the economic cycle lasts?

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