Tim Drayson

Head of Economics

Tim believes nothing good ever happens after midnight which is why he is rarely spotted out late. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.

Posts by Tim Drayson

Economics

Clueless, but not complacent

As the old adage goes, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. So instead, we explain some of our forecasting philosophy and where, if at all, we might be able to provide some insight about the economic outlook.

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Economics

Cycling uphill

The markets appear to have given up on President Trump delivering his campaign promise to boost growth. Yet despite the delay, there are signs this could be about to change with profound implications for the current goldilocks environment.

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Economics

US shale oil and the consumer (video)

During my guest hosting on CNBC, the conversation veered onto the outlook for oil prices, a perennial struggle for economists. Fortunately, the discussion flowed back towards what this means for the US consumer.

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Economics

That dog won't hunt

The market has taken solace from recent weak US core inflation readings and expects rates to remain exceptionally low over the next few years. Yet I believe it requires a much more significant shock to derail the Fed from continuing its plan to gradually normalise monetary policy.

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Economics

The wage conundrum

One of the biggest macroeconomic puzzles today is the lack of wage growth despite an apparent return to full employment in a number of countries. Is it time to throw away the economic models?

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Economics

US – China trade and the threat of protectionism

The US runs a massive trade deficit with China. President Trump is likely to continue to talk tough, but we do not believe it is in his interests to spark a trade war. Listen to my views below.

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Economics

Escape velocity?

Are we moving away from secular stagnation and towards normalization?

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