Head of Economics
Tim believes nothing good ever happens after midnight which is why he is rarely spotted out late. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.
By Tim Drayson - March 07, 2018 3 mins
'Goldilocks' is giving way to stronger US growth and potential inflation concerns, with Congress fanning the overheating economy with even more fiscal stimulus. This is likely to prove a textbook example of a political business cycle.
By Tim Drayson - January 02, 2018 3 mins
Congress has passed a surprisingly powerful fiscal stimulus which markets appear to be underestimating. Strong growth might be cheered initially, but given that the US economy is already operating at full capacity, it risks overheating.
By Tim Drayson - October 04, 2017 3 mins
The second part of my Asia macro tour swung by Tokyo where in a similar set of meetings I witnessed an even greater sense of belief in the status quo. The impression was that the situation is currently fine, so why make unpopular changes?
By Tim Drayson - September 25, 2017 3 mins
Chinese GDP statistics are notoriously unreliable at signalling turning points, so I decided to test the temperature on the ground with a macro tour in Beijing. A couple of days of meetings with policymakers, academics and investors left me comforted and alarmed in equal measure.
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