Tim Drayson

Head of Economics

Tim believes nothing good ever happens after midnight which is why he is rarely spotted out late. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.

Posts by Tim Drayson

Economics

Fool in the shower

Congress has passed a surprisingly powerful fiscal stimulus which markets appear to be underestimating. Strong growth might be cheered initially, but given that the US economy is already operating at full capacity, it risks overheating.

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Economics

Trump's gamble with the US economy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the consequences of the potential US fiscal stimulus for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.

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Economics

Back to the 1960s

US core inflation has remained subdued, but there are signs that wages are beginning to stir. Is it time to resurrect the Phillips Curve? What can we learn from history?

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Economics

Tremors, tensions and typhoons

The second part of my Asia macro tour swung by Tokyo where in a similar set of meetings I witnessed an even greater sense of belief in the status quo. The impression was that the situation is currently fine, so why make unpopular changes?

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Economics

Western propaganda?

Chinese GDP statistics are notoriously unreliable at signalling turning points, so I decided to test the temperature on the ground with a macro tour in Beijing. A couple of days of meetings with policymakers, academics and investors left me comforted and alarmed in equal measure.

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Economics

Hurricane Harvey

As the floodwaters recede from Hurricane Harvey and another storm is brewing, we attempt to assess the impact of natural disasters on the US economy.

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Economics

The Fed, inflation and fiscal policy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the US inflation outlook and Fed reaction to potential US fiscal stimulus.

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