Tim Drayson

Head of Economics

Tim believes nothing good ever happens after midnight which is why he is rarely spotted out late. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.

Posts by Tim Drayson

Economics

Tremors, tensions and typhoons

The second part of my Asia macro tour swung by Tokyo where in a similar set of meetings I witnessed an even greater sense of belief in the status quo. The impression was that the situation is currently fine, so why make unpopular changes?

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Economics

Western propaganda?

Chinese GDP statistics are notoriously unreliable at signalling turning points, so I decided to test the temperature on the ground with a macro tour in Beijing. A couple of days of meetings with policymakers, academics and investors left me comforted and alarmed in equal measure.

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Economics

Hurricane Harvey

As the floodwaters recede from Hurricane Harvey and another storm is brewing, we attempt to assess the impact of natural disasters on the US economy.

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Economics

The Fed, inflation and fiscal policy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the US inflation outlook and Fed reaction to potential US fiscal stimulus.

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Economics

Clueless, but not complacent

As the old adage goes, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. So instead, we explain some of our forecasting philosophy and where, if at all, we might be able to provide some insight about the economic outlook.

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Economics

Cycling uphill

The markets appear to have given up on President Trump delivering his campaign promise to boost growth. Yet despite the delay, there are signs this could be about to change with profound implications for the current goldilocks environment.

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Economics

US shale oil and the consumer (video)

During my guest hosting on CNBC, the conversation veered onto the outlook for oil prices, a perennial struggle for economists. Fortunately, the discussion flowed back towards what this means for the US consumer.

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