Tim Drayson

Head of Economics

Tim believes nothing good ever happens after midnight which is why he is rarely spotted out late. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.

Posts by Tim Drayson

Economics

Without ARMs, does the US economy have legs?

The US might be less sensitive to interest rate increases than commonly thought.

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Economics

Where are the inflation hawks?

US core inflation is on the verge of returning to target, but there are widespread expectations that it will stabilise there over the next few years. How confident should investors be in this outlook?

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Economics

Trillion dollar binge

'Goldilocks' is giving way to stronger US growth and potential inflation concerns, with Congress fanning the overheating economy with even more fiscal stimulus. This is likely to prove a textbook example of a political business cycle.

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Economics

NAFTA la vista, baby

US President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from NAFTA. Is the US protectionist pivot promised during the election campaign finally arriving?

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Economics

Fool in the shower

Congress has passed a surprisingly powerful fiscal stimulus which markets appear to be underestimating. Strong growth might be cheered initially, but given that the US economy is already operating at full capacity, it risks overheating.

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Economics

Trump's gamble with the US economy (video)

While guest hosting on CNBC I discussed the consequences of the potential US fiscal stimulus for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.

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Economics

Back to the 1960s

US core inflation has remained subdued, but there are signs that wages are beginning to stir. Is it time to resurrect the Phillips Curve? What can we learn from history?

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