Lars Kreckel

Global Equity Strategist

Lars is not your average German: he owns the house he lives in, has two children and drives Japanese cars (one electric). Maybe that’s also why he covers equities rather than bonds?

Posts by Lars Kreckel

Strategy

Quantitative easing – no big deal for equities?

How much of where equities are today has come from quantitative easing (QE)? For a long time the answer to this question has not really been that important to equity investors. But now, with central banks moving towards shrinking their balance sheets, it’s a question equity investors can no longer ignore. My view is that QE may not have contributed much to the equity rally and therefore its unwinding may not be a major concern either.

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Strategy

Are equities too expensive?

After eight bull market years and with strong macro data all round, recession and bear market memories must surely be fading. Still, signs of exuberance or great bullishness are difficult to find; at most there is cautious optimism. Why? One of the most common push-backs against an equity bull case is that equities are too expensive. I can see where this concern comes from, but believe it’s something to push back against. Here are my top 10 points on equity valuations.

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Strategy

Driving into uncertainty

A few weeks ago Emiel showed us a photo of his Panther Kalista classic car. Not to be outdone, I’m including a photo of my car, a Nissan Leaf. It may have less character, but if the Panther is a reminder of car history, the Leaf could provide a glimpse of the car future.

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Strategy

Show me the money

One thing is for sure, the US economy is closer to full employment than it was a year ago. More difficult to say is whether it is at full employment. So far we’re still lacking much evidence that US wage growth is picking up steam. However, much like a tube of toothpaste being squeezed a little too hard, wage growth can suddenly accelerate when labour markets are tight. So from an equity investor’s perspective it’s better to think about the potential impact of rising wages on profits before it actually happens.

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Strategy

Everything you need to know about: Q2 earnings

The Q2 US reporting season is upon us. It’s a busy time for equity investors, though earnings seasons rarely move the needle much from a macro perspective. Here is a quick-read primer of what to expect over the next few weeks and my two key top-down conclusions.

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Strategy

Trump today, Trump tomorrow?

Impeachment talk is nothing new in Washington. It’s difficult to think of any US President in recent times where some part of the political spectrum has not been calling for impeachment. Yet, US impeachment talk has gained unusual momentum in recent weeks, making it a scenario worth thinking through for investors. Here are nine questions and nine answers.

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Strategy

Populist allocation

The French have elected an establishment President - surely this marks the end of road of the Political Paradigm? Far from it! More than 45% of French voters cast their ballot for a populist in the first round, more than ever before. In part 3 of this blog series I look at how the theme impacts financial markets and asset prices.

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