Lars Kreckel

Global Equity Strategist

Lars is not your average German: he owns the house he lives in, has two children and drives Japanese cars (one electric). Maybe that’s also why he covers equities rather than bonds?

Posts by Lars Kreckel

Strategy

A FOMO Market

In at least one respect, I can identify with Millennials: FOMO. The ‘fear of missing out’ on things such as Game of Thrones, tickets to FC Cologne vs Arsenal, that perfect powder run on my snowboard holiday or front row seats at my daughters’ nativity plays. But looking at markets at the moment, it’s pretty obvious I’m not the only one with FOMO!

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Strategy

What's not to like?

It’s easy to build a buy case for European equities at the moment. The economy is booming, earnings are growing, politics look as stable as they have been for years and the European stock markets have lagged behind for so long that surely it’s time for some catch up? But perhaps constructing this buy case is a bit too easy?

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Strategy

Quantitative easing – no big deal for equities?

How much of where equities are today has come from quantitative easing (QE)? For a long time the answer to this question has not really been that important to equity investors. But now, with central banks moving towards shrinking their balance sheets, it’s a question equity investors can no longer ignore. My view is that QE may not have contributed much to the equity rally and therefore its unwinding may not be a major concern either.

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Strategy

Are equities too expensive?

After eight bull market years and with strong macro data all round, recession and bear market memories must surely be fading. Still, signs of exuberance or great bullishness are difficult to find; at most there is cautious optimism. Why? One of the most common push-backs against an equity bull case is that equities are too expensive. I can see where this concern comes from, but believe it’s something to push back against. Here are my top 10 points on equity valuations.

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Strategy

Driving into uncertainty

A few weeks ago Emiel showed us a photo of his Panther Kalista classic car. Not to be outdone, I’m including a photo of my car, a Nissan Leaf. It may have less character, but if the Panther is a reminder of car history, the Leaf could provide a glimpse of the car future.

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Strategy

Show me the money

One thing is for sure, the US economy is closer to full employment than it was a year ago. More difficult to say is whether it is at full employment. So far we’re still lacking much evidence that US wage growth is picking up steam. However, much like a tube of toothpaste being squeezed a little too hard, wage growth can suddenly accelerate when labour markets are tight. So from an equity investor’s perspective it’s better to think about the potential impact of rising wages on profits before it actually happens.

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Strategy

Everything you need to know about: Q2 earnings

The Q2 US reporting season is upon us. It’s a busy time for equity investors, though earnings seasons rarely move the needle much from a macro perspective. Here is a quick-read primer of what to expect over the next few weeks and my two key top-down conclusions.

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