Head of Multi-Asset Funds
With failed football dreams behind him, John applies the same level of enthusiasm to investing, with more success (fortunately). When not suited and booted, his outside interests are almost exclusively football, craft beer and reading about how the brain works.
By John Roe - October 20, 2017 4 mins
All seems well with markets, but there are always clouds on the horizon. With price inflation remaining contained, one risk we think deserves more airtime is how a corporate margin squeeze could cause the next downturn. The next US Federal Reserve chair is also a mystery that could rock markets and President Trump’s objectives will be central to what candidates have to promise if they’re to get the big job.
By John Roe - September 18, 2017 3 mins
With Philippe Coutinho and Alexis Sanchez staying at their clubs, the most recent football transfer window offers a great example of the availability bias at work and a counter example to the common investment adage “buy the rumour, sell the fact”.
By John Roe - August 24, 2017 3 mins
While the UK prepares to break away from the EU, the voting age population is evolving. When the transition concludes, younger people’s views could be significantly under-represented. Adjusting for this could lead to some very different conclusions.
By John Roe - August 01, 2017 4 mins
OPEC members have a long history of breaching production quotas, which contributes to scepticism about current cuts. Game theory explains why this pattern persists and also why the Saudis often act, as cartel leader, if it becomes too widespread.
By John Roe - July 25, 2017 4 mins
Oil price spikes have contributed to almost all US recessions since 1950. But with the US shale revolution, most investors are more concerned with how low oil prices could go. Ultimately, OPEC will decide the answer to that question. Our analysis suggests OPEC will continue to limit production when necessary, with the aim of generally keeping prices between $45-$55 outside of recessions and significant new supply disruptions.
By John Roe - June 28, 2017 2 mins
As deflationary disappointment continues, we think that structural drivers are making it hard to generate wage inflation. As central banks all try to bluff it out, I take a tour of the pressures facing the US, UK and Europe and what we think it means for asset classes.
By John Roe - May 25, 2017 3 mins
Inflationary disappointment doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Alongside our new political paradigm, we see the search for inflation as a key driver for central bank policy and markets for the rest of 2017. I tie those two market themes together using the title from one of my favourite songs, only for host Mark Barton to catch me out by revealing the hidden link live on air.
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