John Roe

Head of Multi-Asset Funds

With failed football dreams behind him, John applies the same level of enthusiasm to investing, with more success (fortunately). When not suited and booted, his outside interests are almost exclusively football, craft beer and reading about how the brain works.

Posts by John Roe

Economics

Gaming Saudi oil production

OPEC members have a long history of breaching production quotas, which contributes to scepticism about current cuts. Game theory explains why this pattern persists and also why the Saudis often act, as cartel leader, if it becomes too widespread.

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Strategy

Calling OPEC

Oil price spikes have contributed to almost all US recessions since 1950. But with the US shale revolution, most investors are more concerned with how low oil prices could go. Ultimately, OPEC will decide the answer to that question.  Our analysis suggests OPEC will continue to limit production when necessary, with the aim of generally keeping prices between $45-$55 outside of recessions and significant new supply disruptions. 

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Strategy

Real podcast problems

As deflationary disappointment continues, we think that structural drivers are making it hard to generate wage inflation. As central banks all try to bluff it out, I take a tour of the pressures facing the US, UK and Europe and what we think it means for asset classes.

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Economics

Inflation rhymes

Inflationary disappointment doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Alongside our new political paradigm, we see the search for inflation as a key driver for central bank policy and markets for the rest of 2017. I tie those two market themes together using the title from one of my favourite songs, only for host Mark Barton to catch me out by revealing the hidden link live on air.

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Portfolio Thinking

French Toast

Markets toasted France on Sunday night (April 23) as Macron made the second round to challenge Marine Le Pen. It broke a sequence of shock election results in G7 countries and for once meant our Asset Allocation team got a full night’s sleep (see Sunday Bleus which we updated live on Sunday night).

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Portfolio Thinking

Missing the cut; tales from the rough

The plan was to link to my latest cameo on Bloomberg TV, but on a busy news day I didn't make the cut to get a clip on their website. Undeterred, here's summary of what we covered on oil, US unemployment and inflation.

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Portfolio Thinking

Assuming the position

We worry about sharing popular investment ideas, since the view is probably in the price. But how do we know if a trade is crowded? Positioning information can give us a clue, although it requires careful interpretation.

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