James is a techno-optimist and an early adopter. When not 'eating' soylent, he is cycling on his electric bike or building robot lego with his son. Don't give him chocolate after midnight.
By James Carrick - July 10, 2018 4 mins
For decades, demographers were too pessimistic on life expectancy and had to revise up their forecasts. Are they now too optimistic? Recent data suggest that UK ‘death rates’ have stopped improving. If sustained, life expectancy projections would need to be revised down. This would have profound implications for government and pension finances.
By James Carrick - June 08, 2018 2 mins
Global economic data releases have surprised to the downside in recent months, particularly in Europe. While some of this appears to be noise (data were unexplainably strong in the last quarter of 2017), higher oil prices pose further downside risks.
By James Carrick - May 03, 2018 3 mins
What happens when babyboomers retire? Have we saved enough for retirement or are we living beyond our means? Academics argue high savings by prime-aged babyboomers in their 'summer' have depressed real interest rates in recent decades. But the community is split as to what happens next as 'winter' comes.
By James Carrick - March 12, 2018 3 mins
On some indicators equities look expensive – the CAPE ratio is the highest since the dot.com boom. But with interest rates at multi-decade lows, shouldn't equity earnings yields be low too? Rising interest rates pose a threat to valuations, but models suggest this could be offset as long as recession fears remain low.
By James Carrick - December 05, 2017 3 mins
We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?
By James Carrick - November 08, 2017 3 mins
With the Fed and ECB unwinding QE, what happens when we come off the meds? There are signs that the patient (the economy) has healed, suggesting limited withdrawal effects. While addiction and placebo effects could still increase risk premia, low inflation reduces the risk of going ‘cold turkey’.