James Carrick

Global economist

James is a techno-optimist and an early adopter. When not 'eating' soylent, he is cycling on his electric bike or building robot lego with his son. Don't give him chocolate after midnight.

Posts by James Carrick

Economics

Champions League clique

The rise of Chelsea and Man City shows that it takes a lot of money to break into the Champions League elite, but once you're there, it creates a virtuous circle. The same is true for inflation. There is a self-reinforcing loop of high inflation expectations, wages and prices. But the 2014 oil shock looks to have knocked the US and Japan out. Consumers' inflation expectations remain stubbornly low.

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Economics

We don't need no education

In 1979, Pink Floyd cried "Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!”. Ironically, this marked a turning point. The contribution to US wage growth from educational attainment appears to have peaked since the early 80s. This is just another brick in the wall in our argument of weaker US trend growth.

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Economics

That’s why gran’s gone to Iceland (to work!)

Ageing populations are reducing global trend growth. However an army of grandmas is boosting the UK labour force because of changes to retirement ages. This means UK trend growth should hold up relatively better than the US. However, an offsetting end to immigration would see the UK labour force freeze.

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Economics

Yo-yo clubs

Leicester city’s rise and fall over the past year mirrors that of financial risk premiums. Fundamentals are probably average but performance can oscillate wildly. The Fed wants to see monetary conditions tighten: this can come through a stronger dollar, higher risk-free rates or increased risk premiums.

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Economics

2.4: Legacy

Low US wage inflation seems to be a legacy of the collapse in commodity prices. As with the new series of 24, a plot twist should inevitably provide redemption to inflation hawks. Wages should pick up in line with headline inflation as the oil effect fades.

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Economics

Reservations about reserve workers

Just as football teams have reserve players they can use during the busy Christmas period, the Fed believes the US economy still has a large 'reserve army' of 'discouraged' workers who can keep wages low. We have reservations about this.

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Macrobites

Oils well that ends well

US corporate bad loans appear to have peaked, suggesting limited ‘spillover’ from the oil sector to the broader economy. This should keep banks lending, the economy growing and the Fed hiking.

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