James Carrick

Global economist

James is a techno-optimist and an early adopter. When not 'eating' soylent, he is cycling on his electric bike or building robot lego with his son. Don't give him chocolate after midnight.

Posts by James Carrick

Economics

Good cop, bad cop - is Trump a negotiating genius?

On the face of it, Donald Trump has proven to be an aggressive and erratic US president. Yet academic research shows 'good cop, bad cop' works as a negotiating technique. Although we're seeing a lot of 'bad cop' Trump at the moment in the trade war, is this just a negotiating tactic?

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Economics

Will our children live longer than us?

For decades, demographers were too pessimistic on life expectancy and had to revise up their forecasts. Are they now too optimistic? Recent data suggest that UK ‘death rates’ have stopped improving. If sustained, life expectancy projections would need to be revised down. This would have profound implications for government and pension finances.

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Economics

Disco dancing data

Global economic data releases have surprised to the downside in recent months, particularly in Europe. While some of this appears to be noise (data were unexplainably strong in the last quarter of 2017), higher oil prices pose further downside risks.

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Economics

The ant and the grasshopper

What happens when babyboomers retire? Have we saved enough for retirement or are we living beyond our means? Academics argue high savings by prime-aged babyboomers in their 'summer' have depressed real interest rates in recent decades. But the community is split as to what happens next as 'winter' comes.

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Economics

CAPE fear

On some indicators equities look expensive – the CAPE ratio is the highest since the dot.com boom. But with interest rates at multi-decade lows, shouldn't equity earnings yields be low too? Rising interest rates pose a threat to valuations, but models suggest this could be offset as long as recession fears remain low.

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Economics

Economy gastronomy

'Resource utilisation' is red hot, yet global inflation remains subdued. Is this because we’ve been reheating the economy from ‘frozen’ rather than ‘chilled’?

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Economics

Goldilocks - will the porridge ever overheat?

We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?

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