Global Emerging Market Economist
Erik is your typical EM aficionado. He has worked for the IMF, lived several years in Hong Kong and has an Indian wife. His motto: Get the bigger picture.
By Erik Lueth - January 10, 2018
How does emerging market debt typically perform after being downgraded from investment grade? Does forced selling lead to underperformance or is it all in the price by then?
By Erik Lueth - December 19, 2017 1 mins
In the decades leading up to the global financial crisis (GFC), global trade grew roughly twice as fast as global output. But in the five years before 2016, trade mostly underperformed activity, prompting many to call the end of globalisation. We indulged in those discussions ourselves eighteen months ago. These calls, it seems, were premature.
By Erik Lueth - October 27, 2017 2 mins
2017 looks set to mark the first year of an emerging market (EM) growth pick-up after six years of successive slowdowns. The growth acceleration is not only driven by the high-profile recoveries of Russia and Brazil, but comprises about 70% of the EM universe. So what could lie in store for EM in both the short and medium term?
By Erik Lueth - October 09, 2017
This is the fourth and last in a series of blogs that looks at the risk of a hard landing in the Chinese economy. One problem when assessing this risk is the lack of historical precedents. Very few countries underwent debt build-ups of Chinese proportions, and those that did were usually very small, open economies. The one exception is 1990 Japan which displays some striking similarities with today’s China.
By Erik Lueth - August 16, 2017 2 mins
This is the third in a series of blogs that looks at the risks of a Chinese hard landing. In the first we argued that China still has important defences in the form of fiscal space. In the second, we discussed why the odds of financial crisis are not that high. In this blog, we ask whether China sits on a property bubble, which tend to end in violent and drawn-out recessions.
By Erik Lueth - July 04, 2017 2 mins
History is littered with episodes where the rules of economics were declared dead, only for these rules to return with a vengeance. You remember the ‘end of the business cycle’ debate in the late 90s or the ‘great moderation’ paradigm of the early 00s? Despite these precedents and despite overwhelming evidence that large debt build-ups can end in tears, we believe a Chinese financial crisis is not that likely over the next 2-3 years.
By Erik Lueth - June 27, 2017 3 mins
Just as Hobbes’ Leviathan saves the people from the horrors of constant struggle and chaos, we ask whether the Chinese state can save the people from a hard landing.
All posts: 16
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