Emiel van den Heiligenberg

Head of Asset Allocation

Emiel rowed at university and claims to have been a lightweight until French fries got the better of him. His spare time has since been filled by a passion for shark diving and skiing. When not glued to his Bloomberg screens, this Dutch man is hooked on computer games, peanut butter and his favourite dark beer made by Belgian monks.

Posts by Emiel van den Heiligenberg

Strategy

Kabuki and Super Mario

There doesn’t seem to be much interest in Japanese investment ideas by foreigners, which makes me wonder whether we are collectively missing a trick. Whether you consider culture, technology, economics or social developments, Japan remains quite different from the western perception of what is mainstream. This makes it an interesting part of the investment universe as it could provide idiosyncratic, diversifying investment opportunities.

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Macrobites

Birthday matters

It's time to celebrate Macro Matters' first birthday, and reflect on our first year of blogging!

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Strategy

It’s difficult at the top

Markets are grinding higher and many investors are looking to call the top of the market cycle. In this light we ask ourselves what causes bubbles and more importantly how do we spot them? Over time I have collected a range of indicators that seek to have some predictive value in spotting bubbles emerging. I modestly call this the Heiligenberg Index.

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Strategy

Focus on the horse, not the car

Whilst it can be enticing to focus on emerging technologies, it’s perhaps more important for investors to focus on the disrupted incumbents left in their wake.

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Strategy

Waiting for the ‘fat pitch’

A great advantage in managing money is having the ability to wait: avoiding a situation where you have to invest. This means you can pass on an investment idea simply because it doesn’t look interesting enough and wait for truly great opportunities. American baseball fans call this “waiting for the fat pitch”.

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Strategy

Should investors be worried about US-China relations?

As I wrote in my latest client update, for much of the last century the United States has enjoyed a longstanding position of dominance within the world political system. However, we believe we are entering a new political paradigm and are moving towards a ‘multi-polar’ world, one where the US is joined at the top by other powers such as China. The US must find a way to share its global power, or risk falling into what is known as a ‘Thucydides Trap’. At present, President Trump is likely to continue to talk tough on trade but we do not think it will lead to a trade war, nor would this be in his interest. In recognising both the changing political as well as economic landscape, we believe investors can better inform their investment outlook.

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Strategy

Sympathy for the lonely rider

Our ‘lower-for-longer theme’ remains firmly in place. We believe it’s unlikely the world will return to historically normal interest rates. In today's markets, therefore, owning diversification and protection becomes ever more important.

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