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7 questions for ‘17

In my last post I reflected on the year that we’ve had and how it sets us up for the coming year. To keep us focused, we decided that it would be appropriate to distil our outlook for 2017 into seven key questions that we’ve asking ourselves this year...

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Politics, policy and (market) peaks

While our forecasts for 2018 follow a similar trajectory to 2017, a healthy dose of potential risk lurks in the shadows. For a different take on the Asset Allocation team’s outlook for next year, here’s an insight into the regular debate at our team meetings in the first of a three-part series focusing on our discussions on each of the three Ps of politics, policy and (market) peaks.

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Can someone please tell us what we just voted on?

Ahead of the referendum, we asked: "can someone please tell us what we are voting on?" Now that the results are in, it is still not particularly clear what we just voted for. Is it to emulate Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, Canada or Australia?

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Spot the odd one out

The below market consensus pricing of European and US inflation markets contrasts starkly with the picture in the UK. British investors looking for protection against a global (rather than country-specific) inflation shock could find better value overseas.

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Not all doom and gloom for diversified investors

It’s easy to be downbeat about the UK at the moment. But it’s important to separate Brexit’s short-term economic impact from the long-term outcomes for investors.

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Swimming naked? How EM will fare in 2017

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked, as Warren Buffett remarked. As far as EMs are concerned, we believe they are well positioned for tighter liquidity in 2017, i.e. greater external funding pressures and higher interest rates. This is due to strong fundamentals and because EMs have already adjusted a great deal to the new environment.

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Worried about Mutti

More and more investors seem to be getting concerned about Angela Merkel’s future. Will/can Mutti stay? To me the risk of Merkel being pushed out remains low.

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