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Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked, as Warren Buffett remarked. As far as EMs are concerned, we believe they are well positioned for tighter liquidity in 2017, i.e. greater external funding pressures and higher interest rates. This is due to strong fundamentals and because EMs have already adjusted a great deal to the new environment.
The consensus remains bullish on India even after, or perhaps because of, recent currency reforms. We beg to differ. While Modi’s reform efforts have been impressive, only rivalled by Mexico following the global financial crisis, India still faces significant cyclical headwinds.
Ageing demographics have probably halved US trend growth from 3¼% to 1½%. The number of retirees is outstripping school leavers for the first time ever. So immigration - a key concern of President-elect Trump - is now the only driver of working-age population growth.