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Swimming naked? How EM will fare in 2017

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked, as Warren Buffett remarked. As far as EMs are concerned, we believe they are well positioned for tighter liquidity in 2017, i.e. greater external funding pressures and higher interest rates. This is due to strong fundamentals and because EMs have already adjusted a great deal to the new environment.

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Reservations about reserve workers

Just as football teams have reserve players they can use during the busy Christmas period, the Fed believes the US economy still has a large 'reserve army' of 'discouraged' workers who can keep wages low. We have reservations about this.

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Is economic forecasting more like rolling dice or owning a guinea pig?

Historically, the probability of a recession starting in any given year has been independent of the length of the preceding expansion. That makes economic forecasting much more like rolling dice than looking after a guinea pig. Thinking that we are "overdue" a recession because the expansion is "long in the tooth" is an example of the gambler's fallacy and can lead to erroneous investment conclusions.

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Overstimulated

Trump is promising fiscal candy and markets seem to be on a sugar high. Will this end in tears?

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Cashless in Calcutta

The consensus remains bullish on India even after, or perhaps because of, recent currency reforms. We beg to differ. While Modi’s reform efforts have been impressive, only rivalled by Mexico following the global financial crisis, India still faces significant cyclical headwinds.

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Hammond’s first Autumn Statement…*

Ahead of the Autumn Statement, media reports were circulating that the Prime Minister wanted it to be a “deadly dull” affair; in the end it wasn’t far off. The growth downgrade was predictable, the borrowing upward revisions were as expected and many of the measures had already been announced ahead of time. So you may be wondering: why I am even writing a blog post? Well, there are still a few things worth highlighting.

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The Peak of Man (Utd)

Just as footballers peak with age, US trend growth has been dragged down by babyboomers stagnating as they enter their 50s. An ageing population means the US economy, like Man Utd, is ‘Wayning’, with its best days behind it.

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