Ageing populations are reducing global trend growth. However an army of grandmas is boosting the UK labour force because of changes to retirement ages. This means UK trend growth should hold up relatively better than the US. However, an offsetting end to immigration would see the UK labour force freeze.
As I wrote in my latest client update, for much of the last century the United States has enjoyed a longstanding position of dominance within the world political system. However, we believe we are entering a new political paradigm and are moving towards a ‘multi-polar’ world, one where the US is joined at the top by other powers such as China. The US must find a way to share its global power, or risk falling into what is known as a ‘Thucydides Trap’. At present, President Trump is likely to continue to talk tough on trade but we do not think it will lead to a trade war, nor would this be in his interest. In recognising both the changing political as well as economic landscape, we believe investors can better inform their investment outlook.
Markets toasted France on Sunday night (April 23) as Macron made the second round to challenge Marine Le Pen. It broke a sequence of shock election results in G7 countries and for once meant our Asset Allocation team got a full night’s sleep (see Sunday Bleus which we updated live on Sunday night).