The eternal truth in financial crises is that debt is the heart of the problem. Without debt, there is no leverage and no forced selling. Warning lights are now flashing across emerging markets. Timing the next debt crisis is extraordinarily difficult, but we know where to look.
In a post last year (Double Dutch), I wrote about the changes being made to pension fund regulation in the Netherlands. While some people put this topic in the same category as "watching paint dry", it does have important implications for how we think about fixed income markets in Europe.
Seven years into this bull market, how is it that equities continue to rally? I share investors' scepticism, but not because of the duration of the bull market or the size of the rally. I struggle to find reasons to be bullish on the two fundamental drivers of equities: earnings and valuations.