Politics

Macrobites

A shift to the right?

The rise of populism is driving a new political paradigm. But what does this mean for markets? Could more volatility and higher risk premia across asset classes be round the corner?

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Economics

Only 240 days to go….

After a tricky month for Prime Minister Theresa May, Parliament is in recess and the clock is ticking away for a Brexit deal. What sort of deal might the UK get, and what should we be looking out for?

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Strategy

Will equities rally ahead of the US mid-terms?

History suggests that equities struggle to make gains ahead of US mid-term elections. With anti-trade rhetoric likely to feature in this autumn’s campaign, this time is unlikely to be different. On the other hand, we have also learnt to be prepared for the opposite with President Trump.

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Economics

Good cop, bad cop - is Trump a negotiating genius?

On the face of it, Donald Trump has proven to be an aggressive and erratic US president. Yet academic research shows 'good cop, bad cop' works as a negotiating technique. Although we're seeing a lot of 'bad cop' Trump at the moment in the trade war, is this just a negotiating tactic?

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