Government bonds

Strategy

Bearish bias on bonds binned

A sell-off in the US government debt market has whetted our appetite for an asset that more and more investors now love to hate. Tactically we have adjusted our view from underweight to neutral.

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Strategy

Eureka: the Archimedes principle

Is there an Archimedes principle at play in financial markets? As central banks withdraw liquidity by shrinking their asset holdings, does it inevitably imply bad news for investors? We look to theoretical, historical and contemporary clues to find out.

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Economics

Let's Twist Again

The long-end of the US yield curve is at its flattest for over a decade, risking distortions in the economy as the Fed raises rates. If this continues, at what point will the central bank get its dancing shoes on and consider Operation 'Twist Again'?

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Macrobites

Italy: too big to fail, too big to bail

 

Political risk is back with a vengeance in Italy. As the third largest global issuer of government bonds after the US and Japan, the country is too big to be allowed to fail without severe contagion to the global financial system. However, it is also too big to bail out comfortably using tried and tested mechanisms.

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