US consumers’ inflation expectations sitting at a 53-year low resolves one of today’s macro puzzles: why is wage inflation still subdued despite low unemployment? When adjusting for inflation expectations, real wage growth is as rapid as in previous economic booms.
Avoiding financial crises is critical when investing in emerging markets. That’s why we developed the Country Risk Model, a general health check that helps us steer clear of economies with too many imbalances and symptoms of overheating. The model provides valuable trading signals outside full-blown crises too.