Many investors have been flagging 2017 as carrying a high degree of political risk in Europe, with some of the big economies heading to the ballot box. The importance of Germany and France, given their economic size, political clout and as two of the founders of the EU, is without question. However, another founding member, albeit smaller, is the first one to hold elections this year on 15 March 2017. Could the outcome of the Dutch election be a threat to the European Union?
We have become more constructive on commodities this summer, in particular on the energy complex. After many years of supply outstripping demand in oil markets leading to rising inventories, we now see the oil market moving towards balance in 2017. But is buying commodities directly the best way to express our view?