"This is the start of an earnings recession" has been one of the more persistent bearish arguments over the past year. I was never in that camp and it was arguably never a consensus view, but the current reporting season marks the beginning of the end of this particular reason to be bearish.
Let’s assume Trump wins or at least the market re-prices his chances of winning. What would a President Trump do and how would asset prices respond? It’s a question worth asking, but not an easy question to answer given that Trump describes himself as ‘totally flexible on very, very many issues’.