Investors are accustomed to assessing risk, estimating the likelihood of potential outcomes and their impacts. But the coronavirus is a black swan, unpredictable and with an eventual outcome shrouded in uncertainty. I discussed this uncertainty during my recent Bloomberg appearance.
Beware the herd. Gold seems to be one of the most loved trade ideas right now, which for us is a warning sign and leads us to look elsewhere. Equally, the market was very quick to discount US-Iran tensions, suggesting a high degree of common thinking there too. Here's why popular ideas worry us and what we think that means right now.