James Carrick

Global economist

James is a global economist with a knack for using analogies to explain economic concepts. He is a techno-optimist and an early adopter. He enjoys building models - both of the economy and robot Lego ones with his son. He also likes crunching data and chocolate bars. He joined in 2006 from the number-one ranked economics team at ABN AMRO with prior experience at HM Treasury.

Posts by James Carrick

Economics

The ant and the grasshopper

What happens when babyboomers retire? Have we saved enough for retirement or are we living beyond our means? Academics argue high savings by prime-aged babyboomers in their 'summer' have depressed real interest rates in recent decades. But the community is split as to what happens next as 'winter' comes.

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Economics

CAPE fear

On some indicators equities look expensive – the CAPE ratio is the highest since the dot.com boom. But with interest rates at multi-decade lows, shouldn't equity earnings yields be low too? Rising interest rates pose a threat to valuations, but models suggest this could be offset as long as recession fears remain low.

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Economics

Economy gastronomy

'Resource utilisation' is red hot, yet global inflation remains subdued. Is this because we’ve been reheating the economy from ‘frozen’ rather than ‘chilled’?

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Economics

Goldilocks - will the porridge ever overheat?

We're currently in a Goldilocks environment - not too hot, not too cold. How long can this last? Structural forces are depressing inflation but cyclical pressures are intensifying. Even if the microwave is less powerful than before, if you keep zapping the porridge for long enough, surely it will eventually overheat?

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